Why Uhuru's impeachment won't be easy

Steps in the impeachment of a President

• MP proves a gross violation of the Constitution or of any other law
• Gets backing of one-third of National Assembly members to sign Motion
• Gets two-thirds (233 members) vote in his/her favour in National Assembly
• If the MP gets the 233, the National Assembly Speaker informs Senate counterpart within two days
• Senate then has seven days to sit and hear the charges against the President
• A special committee of 11 senators gets appointed by the resolution of the Senate to hear the matter
• The committee sits for 10 days
• At the time, the President shall have the right to appear and be represented before the special committee
• The committee looks at the veracity of the allegations against the President and the proof available
• If the committee sees sufficient substantiation of the allegations, it tables the matter in the Senate for a vote
• President is invited to defend himself/herself in the Senate before the impeachment vote
• If at least two-thirds of members of the Senate vote to uphold any impeachment charge, the President ceases to hold office?

Why Uhuru's impeachment won't be easy

A bid to impeach President Uhuru Kenyatta may be difficult given the high threshold needed for such a Motion to be successful.

Yesterday, MPs and constitutional lawyers explained that political wrangling could not be fronted as a ground for impeachment.

The President has to be guilty of gross violation of the Constitution, or commit a serious crime.

The MPs argued that even if such a Motion were to find its way to the National Assembly, it would be defeated by the prevailing political environment.

This is because lawmakers would be whipped to support the President by party leaders keen to run for president in 2022, and who would not want to hand an advantage to their competitor - Deputy President William Ruto. 

The Constitution provides that the Deputy President takes over power for the remainder of the term should the President be impeached.

The political turbulence within Jubilee has kicked off talks of an impeachment Motion against Uhuru by MPs allied to Mr Ruto.

Silent discussion

The silent discussion has been sparked by the President’s close ally and the immediate former Vice Chairman of the Jubilee Party, David Murathe’s declaration that he will do everything to block Ruto from ascending to the presidency.

But questions whether such a Motion can marshal the required two-thirds, let alone meeting the constitutional threshold for impeachment, loomed large yesterday.

Opposition MPs and political analysts described the threats as political hyperbole that had high chances of backfiring and crashing Ruto’s political ambition, should his allies attempt it.

They argued that the current political environment did not favour Ruto.

This is because the Opposition MPs allied to Uhuru would vote against such a Motion to either protect the President or block Ruto from assuming the top seat as part of succession politics plans.

MPs allied to ODM leader Raila Odinga, Musalia Mudavadi (ANC), Kalonzo Musyoka (Wiper) and Kanu’s Gideon Moi would generally gang up against such a Motion since by supporting it, they would hand Ruto the presidency.

Constitutional lawyer Bobby Mkangi said political wrangles could not be a basis for impeachment.

 

“A president can only be impeached on grounds of functional integrity and performance. Political disagreement and Memorandum of Understandings are not part of what is provided for in the Constitution,” said Mr Mkangi.

Power of incumbency

No presidential hopeful would want to make Ruto an incumbent, with only three years to the next General Election.

This is because it is always difficult to unseat a president.

Jubilee has 171 MPs in the National Assembly. Out of these, it is envisaged that only MPs allied to Ruto would stand by him.

This implies that his troops would be short of the requisite 233 MPs required for such a motion to sail through.

Parties led by Raila, Mudavadi, Moi, Kalonzo and Bungoma Senator Moses Wetang’ula have a total 136 MPs, which is enough to deny the House the required number, assuming all the other MPs vote in support, which is also very unlikely.

The other 14 small parties have a total of 31 members, while independent MPs are 11. These numbers can vote either way and may insignificantly tilt the equation.

Such a Motion would also have difficulties in meeting the grounds for impeachment that include demonstrating that the President has violated the provisions of the Constitution, or is incapacitated to continue discharging his mandate.

An MP pushing such a Motion would have to prove the grounds before collecting signatures of at least a third of the members.

He or she would then be required to marshal at least 233 MPs in the House to vote in support of the Motion in order to propel the impeachment bid to the Senate.

Yesterday, National Assembly Majority Leader Aden Duale dismissed claims that some MPs allied to Ruto were scheming to impeach Uhuru.

He called the claims “fake-news”, saying they should be ignored.

Resounding defeat

Minority Leader John Mbadi, Mr Wetang’ula and Minority Whip Junet Mohammed said such a Motion would suffer a resounding defeat on the floor.

“They cannot impeach the President in the current political environment because they have no capacity at all. It is pure hyperbole,” said Wetang’ula.