Dalliance between China and Russia bad for West

There seems to be some eeriness associated with years that end with '8', and 2018 is one of them. France lost it in Algeria in 1958, giving the Soviets an entry point in Guinea. There were socio-political upheavals in the United States and France in 1968. In France, there are signs of the upheaval's repeat in 2018.

As two popes and Jomo Kenyatta in Kenya died in 1978, there was a big governance transition with Deng Xiaoping mounting “opening up” and economic “reforms”. China is making a big issue, in 2018, of celebrating Deng’s initiative with Chinese Characteristics for a new Xi Jinping Era of global assertiveness. Xi is not the only assertive leader. He is joined by Donald Trump of the United States and Russia’s Vladmir Putin in what looks like a geopolitical dance of three self-assured and dominant men.

Of the three, Trump has problems convincing anyone, in part because his country is in disarray. Trump’s key advisors on governance and national security face jail-time for risking national security with lies while protecting him. With his key assistants under probe, it is common in the United States, mainly through the global media, to portray Trump as a liar and probably a threat to national security. Richard Nixon resigned from the Presidency in 1974 because he lied to Mr. Conservative, Arizona Senator Barry Goldwater. Trump could be facing the same danger.

Although American credibility is wounded, it still is scaring enough for captive nations to tow whatever the American line is. Seemingly captive Canada arrested a Chinese executive to please the United States and then had its own executives arrested in China’s tit for tat.

National Security

Other captive nations in Western Europe have started towing the line on Iran. In East Asia, fear of the American wrath discourages South Korea and Japan from engaging in independent foreign policy. South Korea needs virtual American clearance to engage North Korea on serious matters, like mutual leaders’ visitations.

As Trump contains captive nations, he struggles to deny that he is Russian created. He tries to sound tough on Russia, China, and everyone else. His National Security Advisor, John Bolton, decreed that ICC was dead. He now laments that the US was losing to China and Russia in projecting its interests in Africa.

Russia’s Putin appears to be amused by claims that he gave Trump to the United States as president, but if he could and did, he would be an extremely powerful man. He at least is sure of what Russian interests are and how to go about protecting and advancing them. He believes that collapsing the Soviet system was a mistake and that international relations is like command of mathematics.

His Putin Doctrine is clear about regaining Russian global pre-eminence, not taking instructions or advice from any other country, about “post-Soviet space” not jeopardizing Russian interests, and about promoting those interests beyond the “post-Soviet space”. One way of achieving that is by engaging in “preventive diplomacy” in near and far off places; to “prevent” the likelihood of events in other places messing up Russian interests. If indeed he helped to make Trump president of the United States, then the Putin Doctrine is working very well.

Chinese Characteristics

Putin gets along with Xi, and neither listens to Trump’s dictates. Both are members of BRICS that serves as an alternative to the Euro-leaning G-7, and are focused on the grandeur of their countries. Russia is interested in China’s Belt and Road Initiative, China is interested in Russia’s oil and gas, and both are not interested in playing second fiddle to either Western Europe or North America. Xi, in particular, is in tough talking mood about China not being stoppable in its march to greatness as it commemorates 40 years of Deng’s opening up everything with Chinese Characteristics.

While Deng had moved China from conceptually being a “forbidden country” to itself and to others, Xi wants to move China to being a global power in every way, of course with Chinese Characteristics. He is doing it with the Belt and Road Initiative, BRI, which draws Europe into China and with the Shared Common Destiny doctrine on the global commons. He does that at the very time that Trump is discarding previous Euro positions on anything international. Trump makes ignoring international law and agreements respectable.

Of the three, Trump appears to be the odd one out in new global power realignment. Competing with a global politics mathematician, Putin, and a far sighted stealth operator, Xi, Trump seems to be lost. He gives indigestion to other players in the United States and, partly because he probably is flatfooted, vomits on the global geopolitical dance floor. By being ungainly, Trump makes Putin and Xi look good as geopolitical dancers.

Prof Munene teaches History and International Relations at [email protected]