Decision-making in times of crisis: The 1982 coup attempt

Senior Private Hezekiah Ochuka appears in court to answer treason charges. [File, Standard]

Anniversaries of unpleasant events are times of reflection and learning from mistakes inherent to decision-making. Security related colleges and research universities study decision-making as an aspect of national security preparedness. Kenya had one of those nasty experiences in the August 1, 1982 attempted coup which is a classic study of systemic failure in decision-making.

The challenge is not unique to Kenya since every country has had to deal with post -fact crisis analysis. Americans have had several crises, the 1962 Cuban one being the best known. It showed that when issues outside the routine come up, the commonsense level of the operators become the issue. Wrongly handled, policy makers decide badly.

Whose call is it?

When crises arise, periods of self-examination often turn to “intelligence”, with calls for “restructuring” and “reorganization”. Irrespective of circumstances decision-making rely on two interlinked levels of responsibility; the “production” and the “consumption” of intelligence. The producers are the regular intelligence officers who collect, collate, analyse, interpret and give meaning to raw information and pass it to their superiors.

While they might give action options, the actual decision on what is to be done belongs to the next level, the “consumer” of intelligence or the policy makers. Producers are tools of governance that “consumers” use to make policy and to run the state.

The correct decision-making depends on whether the people running both levels have the appropriate overlapping qualities: competence, capacity, and capability. Competence refers to temperament, training and education, awareness of the political environment, common sense agility, ability to prod and remain open- minded, command of national interests and issues at stake, right aptitude and loyalty.

While capacities are often the availability of necessary structures, the tools, material, financial, and human resources to get the job done, capability involves the drive, the will, the environment of operation, the accepted standard operating procedures, SOPs, and common sense. When the two levels are disjointed, policy makers tend to exonerate themselves by blaming producers of intelligence and claim that the “intelligence was not actionable”. They fail to reflect on their incompetence as “consumers”.

Our recent history is replete with cases of decision-making incoherence. It was there in the 1998 bombing of the US embassy, the 2007 electoral fiasco, and the 2013 Westgate Mall terror attack when confusion exposed lack of security coordination. In each of these happenings, there was evident failure in decision making on the part of the “consumers”. They were either forewarned of the looming threats to security or were discordant in making the right decisions. The 1982 coup attempt, 36 years ago, shows “consumer” decision -making discordance.

What went wrong

The producers of intelligence in 1982 had done their work brilliantly; the failure was in the “consumer” who did not act correctly. There was either lack of comprehension of the import of the “intelligence” or there were other issues to settle, probably political, which took priority. The plotters, both political and Air Force Commanders, were known and could have been rounded up but they were not. When Air Force Commander, Major General Peter Kariuki, warned General Jackson Mulinge that the coup was imminent on that night, he was instructed to wait.

There were also other moments that showed both confusion and lack of clear thinking. As coup plotters celebrated before victory, individual army officers displayed common sense and took control. Led by General Mahmud Mohammed, they restored discipline by simply outwitting drunk Air Force men. A political purge followed the aftermath of the “coup”. Kariuki was caught up in the purge and became the fall guy. He was court martialed, jailed, and stripped of his rank for not stopping a mutiny.

In 2014, the Court of Appeal indicted the competence of policy makers by overturning Kariuki’s conviction and restoring his military honours and benefits.

Prof Munene teaches history and international relations at USIU.  [email protected]