Handshake is fueling political instability it seeks to address

A recent TV interview by Senate Majority Leader, Kipchumba Murkomen, offered an explanation of the growing rift in Jubilee, with the senator claiming the planned lifestyle audit of public officials, as ordered by President Uhuru Kenyatta, was merely a plot to fix Deputy President William Ruto, with a view to blocking his ambition to become a candidate in the 2022 presidential election.

The senator exonerated President Kenyatta of involvement in the plot to block his deputy, alleging that this was being done by operatives based at State House, who were using their proximity to the president to carry out their own schemes.

Murkomen’s allegations recall the 2013 presidential election when, with the impending retirement of incumbent President, Mwai Kibaki, a power clique at State House embarked on a scheme to groom a candidate to be his successor.

The developments which saw Kenyatta dramatically renege on his support for Musalia Mudavadi’s candidature in the election, declaring his own candidature in a joint ticket with Ruto that led to formation of the Jubilee alliance, meant that the scheme had suffered a major setback that proved irreversible, especially since there was so little recovery time left before the elections.

A widely held view in 2013 was that with Raila Odinga going into the election from the relatively strong position as the country’s Prime Minister, the decision to groom a rival candidate was no more than a desire to block his path to power.

In effect, the claim by Murkomen is that a power clique is working towards blocking Ruto in much the same way as was done to Raila.  

What remains unclear is the role, if any, that Kenyatta is playing, or will, play in this scheme. In 2013, the retiring Kibaki had been a hands-off president.

It would have been easy for people around him to groom a candidate to be his successor without his participation. Besides, if grooming a candidate amounted to undermining Raila, Kibaki would not necessarily have had a view about it, since did not get on well with, and owed no allegiance to, Raila.

In 2022, Kenyatta will be in a different position from Kibaki in 2013. First, since Kenyatta is much more involved than Kibaki, it is unlikely that he will lack a preference in the election.

Second, Kenyatta first came to power, and has since secured a second term, on a promise that he would support Ruto’s candidature when his term ends. Kenyatta is therefore hostage to Ruto and is not at liberty to sit on the fence. If those around him malign his deputy, this is likely to be seen as an act of betrayal.

Before the handshake, Kenyatta’s support for Ruto was presumed. Ever since then, there has been uncertainty about the strength of their relationship, or Kenyatta’s commitment to supporting Ruto as first promised.

The bickering inside Jubilee is now seen as the beginning of a process that will culminate in the stigmatisation of Ruto’s candidature in 2022, in much the same way as happened to Raila before. Raila’s fate in the last three elections will be a lesson for Ruto.

In the 2007 election, which many people including Ruto claim Raila had won, a different result was declared.

The vilification, to which he has been subjected in relation to three elections where he was a strong candidate, was a key factor in defeating Raila’s claim to victory in each of those elections.

Based on this history, Ruto must be aware that the stage is being set for a situation where, whatever the result of any election in which he is a presidential candidate, he will never become the president of Kenya.

Unless things change and the establishment agrees to support his candidature, Ruto’s choices in 2022 will be to go into an election in which he cannot be declared winner, or to disrupt the political situation that has now embarked on consigning him as a pariah, like Raila before him.

If Ruto chooses disruption, this will take the form of ensuring that the 2022 election does not take place, or only goes ahead on his terms.

Since neither of these options will be easy to pull off, the country must expect that the 2022 elections may be accompanied by as much turbulence as all the recent elections.

The handshake between Kenyatta and Raila was meant to provide a new opportunity for political stability, after an anxious period for the country. However, it has not done so and the outlook is that it will not.

Instead, the handshake has set in motion a process where Ruto, a political insider, is in the process of being edged out, with Raila, a much-vilified outsider, set to replace him.

In the long run, the only key to political stability is a system where electoral competition is open, and the results are respected by all. At the moment, the evidence is that the handshake will only perpetuate the very problem it claims to be to addressing.  

- The writer is Executive Director KHRC. [email protected]