Raila’s planned swearing-in on Tuesday is a self defeatist move

National Super Alliance (NASA) leader Raila Odinga

National Super Alliance (NASA) leader Raila Odinga is increasingly becoming politically bankrupt. He is losing the game and could very well disappoint his diehard supporters. His political insolvency springs from a multitude of missteps and tactical miscalculations. But the main cause of his bankruptcy can be distilled into one word; ‘Mugabe-fication’. Just like the deposed Zimbabwean leader, the people who are taking him down are a small group known as the ‘Essentials.’ Let me elaborate.

Leaders do not work unilaterally, they do not rule alone. Borrowing from Bruce Mesquita and Alastair Smith in ‘The Dictator’s Handbook’, for any leader, the political landscape can be broken down into three groups of people: first, are the ‘Interchangables’ - this is the general populace, consisting of Raila’s six million voters.