Raila’s planned swearing-in on Tuesday is a self defeatist move

National Super Alliance (NASA) leader Raila Odinga is increasingly becoming politically bankrupt. He is losing the game and could very well disappoint his diehard supporters. His political insolvency springs from a multitude of missteps and tactical miscalculations. But the main cause of his bankruptcy can be distilled into one word; ‘Mugabe-fication’. Just like the deposed Zimbabwean leader, the people who are taking him down are a small group known as the ‘Essentials.’ Let me elaborate.

Leaders do not work unilaterally, they do not rule alone. Borrowing from Bruce Mesquita and Alastair Smith in ‘The Dictator’s Handbook’, for any leader, the political landscape can be broken down into three groups of people: first, are the ‘Interchangables’ - this is the general populace, consisting of Raila’s six million voters.

Second are the ‘Influentials’; the group that actually chooses the leader. These are the 3,000 or so ODM party members who occasionally convene the National Delegates Conference to elect their party leader. Finally; the ‘Essentials’, the people with the power to overthrow the leader. This is the clique that surrounds Raila consisting of family, power brokers, Members of Parliament, key advisers and rich capitalists. And because Raila is not just an individual but a corporate entity, he has to regularly account to his critical shareholders - the ‘Essentials’. In the next five years, Raila’s survival in politics is dependent on this core group.

But here is why Raila’s band of ‘Essentials’ could leave him. First, holding onto the reins of power for far too long causes a generational succession jam. This inevitably results in a coup. Much as the promise of Caanan sounds good on paper, it is simply not viable. The ‘Essentials’ are not willing to be led on a journey of forty years, wandering around the desert in search of political paradise. They are impatient and disgruntled. Unlike Raila, they are young and still have a political future ahead of them. They will therefore forge alternative alliances or create their own political formations.

Secondly, a potential ruler never buys political loyalty, he only rents it. And there are two currencies for political loyalty; first is the promise of power and public office and second, monetary rewards. Raila is quickly running out of both. And this is precisely why he is politically bankrupt. He does not possess the hard currency required to purchase loyalty from key backers. Additionally, his lenders will not loan him a single cent more.

Raila is staring at five years in the political cold and his exasperated ‘Essentials’ know this is like a lifetime in politics. By 2022, Raila will have been out of government circulation for a decade, during which time, a new generation of nouveau riche ‘Essentials’ not allied to him or ODM would have emerged and consolidated power.

Without doubt, his erstwhile allies will soon cave into temptation of switching sides. Raila understands that attempting to swear himself in on December 12 will be a self-cannibilising move. He is therefore unlikely not go ahead with it because he is a politically bankrupt pragmatist whose bottom-line is to be in government. The question is, who will bail him out?

—The writer is a PhD candidate in Political Economy at SMC University and a Research Fellow at Fort Hall School of Government. [email protected]