Raila’s options as Uhuru settles for second term

As the country prepares to swear-in President Uhuru Kenyatta for the second and final term, millions of Kenyans will be watching his political rival and National Super Alliance (Nasa) leader Raila Odinga and next move.

Raila has vowed he will not recognise Uhuru’s presidency, terming it fraudulent. It is not clear what methods Raila will employ as he navigates the political matrix.

Yesterday, Raila said that he would not relent until he takes over the presidency, claiming he beat Uhuru in the August 8 General Election.

In a statement read by Nasa co-principal Musalia Mudavadi at a retreat at Maanzoni in Machakos, the Raila team insisted they will push on with the convention of the People’s Assembly next month.

But many questions linger on what next for the kingpin of Kenya’s opposition politics. Allies and rivals agree the NASA leader holds a huge sway in the country’s politics.

Shaping a legacy

NASA supporters across the country are keenly watching his lips and every step he makes.

There have been rumours that his coalition was planning to swear him in on Tuesday and that there were two sitting judges ready to administer an oath of office on him.

But as he approaches his sunset days, it will be interesting to see how he shapes his legacy.

Political pundits have argued that there are several options Raila is confronted with at this defining moment in his political career.

He could choose to accept the legitimacy of the Uhuru’s second term and form a formidable opposition, training his eyes on the 2022 contest, or have dialogue with Uhuru to arrive at an arrangement that will unite the nation.

Besides, Nasa might choose to push on with the clamour for the people’s assembly and civil disobedience until they force dialogue with Jubilee.

According to lawyer Martin Oloo, after the swearing in of Uhuru, Raila might have to accept and play the official Opposition’s role.

Oloo says although Raila will be 77 years old in 2022, he could still train his eyes on the contest in which he could face off with William Ruto.

Other options include passing the baton to one of his principals and play behind the scene roles.

“There is no other legal framework or basis to have another elections. Effectively, what Raila needs now is to rethink what he wants. If he wants to go the people’s assembly way, let him go the full hog and this might lead into a referendum,” said Oloo.

Raila withdrew from repeat polls on October 26 barely two weeks to the ballot,claiming that the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission was not prepared to hold a free and fair elections.

He went ahead to persuade his supporters to boycott the election which he said was a sham and a formality to return Uhuru to power. Millions of his supporters heeded his calls with some barricading roads particularly in Siaya, Kisumu, Homa Bay and Migori to ensure that there were no elections.

But Herman Manyora, a lecturer at the Department of Linguistics and Languages at the University of Nairobi argues that Raila is not limited of options. “Its a wrong a premise that once Uhuru has been sworn-in, then the Nasa leader will no longer have room. About half of the country has said they will not recognise Uhuru and that raises serious legitimate issues,” said Manyora. Manyora argues that all option are still open for the opposition leader.

Another option for the opposition leader will be to organise his team and offer constructive criticism to the Uhuru administration and provide a plausible alternative government, according to Oloo. But the option of having a dialogue with Uhuru has been supported by many, including religious leaders and the international community.

Official Opposition

One of the ways suggested is the changing of the Constitution to allow for the creation of the Leader of Opposition’s office. Raila could use the opportunity to push for reforms that he has yearned for as he awaits 2022.

As he navigates the politics, Raila will also have the challenge of appeasing his fellow coalition principals who sacrificed there ambitions for him both in 2013 and this year.

Both former Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka and Bungoma Senator Moses Wetang’ula backed Raila on the two elections, while Mudavadi, the ANC leader, shelved his presidential ambitions in the last elections. How he handles them could determine the future of the coalition.

“Are Kenyans ready to have him give another stab? I doubt. Even for himself the complexities if the political terrain and landscape with voters getting younger will not likely favour him,” says Oloo.