What future holds for NASA and Jubilee in restless Coast

Deputy President William Ruto, Coast Jubilee leaders dance at Tononoka grounds in Mombasa County on Sunday, 20th November,2016 during a Jubilee rally. [PHOTO/MAARUFU MOHAMED/STANDARD]

Intense rivalry between key leaders at the Coast is partly to blame for poor performance of Jubilee Party in the recent polls.

The open fallout has significantly dented prospects of the ruling party. A meeting chaired by Deputy President William Ruto at Wild Waters on September 15, turned into a shouting match between supporters of rival factional leaders.

The factions at the meeting were those for or opposed to governorship candidate Suleiman Shahbal’s lead on President Uhuru Kenyatta’s campaigns in the county.

The members blamed its own ranks for its poor electoral performance. The candidates vent their anger at Shahbal and demanded that he be replaced with Tourism CS Najib Balala to re-energise the party for the October 26 repeat presidential poll.

Ruto had met Jubilee candidates in the August 8 polls to strategise President Uhuru’s campaigns for the October 26 presidential re-run.

Since Shahbal’s defection from Wiper in February 2015, there has been restlessness with old JP members who felt elbowed by the defectors opposed to his leadership.

This open rebellion against Shahbal was emblematic of the problems Jubilee affiliate parties witnessed before their merger. Local analysts have observed that the party leadership failed to address them in time before the election.

There is no indication this wrangling will end soon or that the entry of new defectors will not escalate it to new crippling levels.

Enormous task

“The party faces an enormous task to first unite competing forces within if it is to revive its fortune and win over the hearts of the Coast people,” Ms Maumuna Mwidau, a political analyst said.

She avers that Jubilee should build its team around new defector and former Mombasa Senator Hassan Omar who she claims, has better mobilisation skills and ability to stand up against Governor Hassan Joho. But notably, most of commenters aver that Shahbal, Omar and Balala must gel and work together to bring discipline and direction in Jubilee to mount strong opposition against the Orange Party.

After the August 8 outcome, the ruling party feel emboldened after capturing two gubernatorial seats in Kwale and Lamu as well as President Uhuru’s improved tally compared to the 2013 poll.

An analysis of the August 8 and October 26 polls reveals a marginal decline of votes garnered by President Uhuru in the re-run.

The leaders have attributed it to alleged threats and intimidation by the Opposition.

In the August polls, President Uhuru garnered 97,000 votes and 78,284 in the rerun. Jubilee strategists point to the number of elected leaders on the party Jubilee ticket or affiliate parties as evidence that it was gaining attractions. They say this was evidence of Jubilee’s growing strength in the Coast, which has been dominated by ODM since 2007 General Election.

“Jubilee is now a stronger brand in Mombasa and in the entire Coast region. In the past, it was very rare to see someone in a Jubilee T-shirt walking in town,” said Shahbal.

In 2013, the then President Uhuru’s The National Alliance (TNA) did not have any governor at the Coast [although Issa Timamy was elected on the then pro-Jubilee UDF party] but currently it has two; Salim Mvurya (Kwale) and Fahim Twaha of Lamu. Dr Naomi Shaban also retained her Taveta parliamentary seat on JP signalling the party’s determination to end ODM’s dominance in Coast.

Ms Maimuna, however, says Governor Mvurya was re-elected because of his development record and dismisses claims that Jubilee has made any new inroads in Kwale. “Mvurya was selling beyond any political party. His development record was the only factor that influenced his re-election,” she said.

Prof Hassan Mwakimako believes that for Jubilee to unlock the Coast, the leadership should address land problems, historical injustices, joblessness and propaganda that it plans to relocate port-related business from Mombasa to Naivasha.

“The belief that defectors are moving to Jubilee with voters was proven wrong in the repeat presidential election. Jubilee should start to address historical injustices if they want to win over the Coast region,” said Prof Mwakimako referring to Uhuru’s poor performance in the Coast in the October 26 poll despite Omar’s, John Mruttu’s defection to the ruling coalition.

Other analysts say ODM leader Raila Odinga’s sway at the Coast would be tested in the coming days given that a section of local leaders have started to question their place in the NASA coalition. 

Recently, Malindi MP Aisha Jumwa criticised ODM over the appointment of the Leader of Minority and other posts in Parliament. Last month, 15 ODM MPs threatened to walk out of NASA, claiming that they had been shortchanged leadership lineup of Parliament.

“This shows that the overwhelming support we gave NASA was in vain. We will seek a place where we will be recognised so we can work effectively for our people,” said Msambweni’s Suleiman Dori then. With Kilifi Governor Amason Kingi and his Mombasa counterpart Hassan Joho serving their second and last term, observers say NASA or Raila must identify their replacement early to avoid fallouts.

“The only way Raila’s dominance at Coast can end is if someone with resources establishes a local political party. It is the only way the region can effectively negotiate within national coalitions,” said Ms Mwidau.

Other analysts suggest that even diminished support for Raila does not translate to support for Jubilee as long as the issues that pushed the region to the Opposition such as land disputes and historical injustices remain or are addressed superficially.