Real democracy will triumph over hostilities in rival camps

Where are we going? Where do you see Kenya after October 26? I have lately been asked these questions more times than I remember. Yet the count is not the issue. The issue is I don’t have answers. The only thing I am certain of is the darkness ahead. And it is difficult to see through darkness. Accordingly, I can only grope in the murk, like everybody else. There is anxiety over the impending repeat presidential election. The diplomatic community is worried. The religious fraternity is unsure. The business community is nervous. Jubilee Party, NASA and IEBC, all seem uncertain. Where is the country is headed? Accordingly, everyone is calling for one kind of action or the other, ahead of the poll. There is palpable fear and confusion. Could Kenya explode?

Fear grips societies where thorns of masked monarchical orders begin choking seeds of a fledgling democracy. Our Christian leaders will remember the Parable of the Sower. We read, among other things, that a sower went out to sow.  “And . .  . some seed fell among the thorns . . . and the thorns grew up with the crop and chocked it (Luke 8:7).”

The seeds of Kenya’s liberal democracy fell among the thorns of absolute monarchist cravings, in August 2010. As the tender democratic crop strives for maturity, monarchical yearnings suffocate it. There exist troublesome contradictions and tensions between the citizens’ dreams of a free, fair and democratic society on the one hand and the establishment’s commitment to a despotic monarchical and dynastic order, on the other hand.

The monarchy, however, attempts to disguise itself by wearing a democratic disguise. Hence, every five years, citizens are invited to “exercise their sovereignty by electing leaders of its choice.” Meanwhile, the monarchy has choreographed the process for an ex-ante outcome, as we say in philosophy. The result of the election is determined and known before the event.

All relevant institutions are aligned to deliver a specific outcome. Citizens’ acceptance of this flawed order guarantees post-electoral stability. To disturb this arrangement is to create instability. Hence, you have read columns, even by lawyers saying things like, “The Supreme Court should have thought about the impact of its decision on the stability of the country and the economy before making this judgment.” Good grief! It is not the merits of the case that the court should have embraced. It is “the stability of the country and the economy.” Some have since said the court staged a coup, others that it stole their election. The court shook up a despotic monarchy and its disciples. The monarchy is staring in the fog of the seasons’ end. Real democracy could defeat it. The will of the people could eventually determine who reigns. The monarchy must feel threatened. It will fight back, viciously. The competition between the two is what makes people ask, “Where do you see us going? Where do you see this country after October 26?”

It is difficult for a monarchical order to dialogue with a new order that threatens to overthrow it. It ruthlessly crushes it, instead. Indeed, my former classmate at the University of Nairobi in the late 1970s, David Murathe of JP, has recently called for an open “benevolent dictatorship” in Kenya. Of course, Murathe remembers that we dismissed John Stuart Mill’s notion of “the benevolent dictator” enshrined in the treatise On Liberty (1869). For, Mill said, “Benevolent dictatorship is legitimate in dealing with barbarians.” Is it possible that Murathe considers Kenyans to be “barbarians” to be dealt with “ruthlessly” as Mill suggests? Is he ready to accept a dictator from Emanyulia, or is the notion only tenable when the putative tyrant is from his village?

Murathe is only a sounding board for what is discussed behind closed doors. Jubilee has reflected on dealing with Mills’ “dissenting barbarians” with “ruthlessness,” should they reject the ex-ante results of the October 26 elections. For its part, NASA has said, “There will be no election,” unless its reform agenda is first fulfilled. NASA is, therefore, ready to take Jubilee head on, after October 26 – or even before.

Will there be elections on October 26? I think so. Jubilee and IEBC will ensure there is one. NASA, too, may eventually accept to participate. Regardless, the suspicions and hostilities between the old order and the fledgling democracy will stay on. Thrown into the mix are institutions that cannot call sin by its name. They hide behind the “centrist” self-preserving safety of calling upon President Kenyatta and NASA’s Raila Odinga “to sit down and talk.” The diplomatic community and religious leaders picked their side in the conflict quite early in August – maybe even before, I suspect. The Nairobi private sector did the same. They were not interested in democracy. They craved “normalcy” and circulation of money, respectively through multi billion shilling tenders and as offerings. They still do.

Regrettably, the social tensions in Kenya have now taken a decidedly ethnic character. And they are spreading into every institution and location. Advocates of return to normalcy have failed to recognise the fears among the monarchists and the democrats. The harsh reality is that there are now two sets of tribes – the tribes that rule and those that are ruled. The rulers are afraid of political and economic power slipping from their hands. The ruled are afraid of being dominated in perpetuity. They also dream of political and economic power – and maybe dominance, even.

Jubilee tribes are afraid and so, too, are NASA tribes. Fear in the two camps has given way to mutual hostility. Even as Jubilee buys brokers from ruled tribes, mutual fear and hate remain. And I don’t know where it will end up.

- Mr Muluka is a publishing editor, special consultant and advisor on public and media relations. [email protected]