Court offers Raila the best exit strategy to secure his legacy

In the 1970s, the US Military was convinced that they could use psychic powers as a weapon, especially to enhance their intelligence gathering capability. They set up a secret project called ‘Stargate,’ which included a “Goat Lab” where their men would attempt to stare goats to death. This was the subject of the 2004 book by Welsh author, Jon Ronson, ‘The Men who stare at Goats’. Goats, as anyone would have guessed, simply refused to die merely from being stared at.

Common knowledge aside, the US Military simply refused to take the most obvious and time-tested way of killing a goat; slit the throat with a sharp knife. Well, you could also shoot it in the head. Because of how seemingly obvious this is, when men choose to stare at goats, we must ask why.

NASA’s response to the results of the 2017 elections have left many wondering what exactly they are trying to do. Their acts, many of which like the call for a general strike, have fallen flat like scenes from a bad movie. People moved on to bread and butter issues. And, if recent reports are anything to be believed, NASA leaders have disagreed on mass action as an option. Reason appears to have prevailed and they decided to file a petition in the Supreme Court. Great.

NASA has termed the election as a sham, raising several issues with the electoral process which I need not repeat. Many others are satisfied by the process and outcome. Nonetheless, suffice it to say that going to court gives them, in their own words, an opportunity to lay bare to the world the intrigues behind the making of a computer-generated leadership. The script suddenly becomes interesting, except perhaps for the fact that courts are guided by verifiable facts, backed up by indisputable evidence, not innuendo and propaganda. Perhaps, they will surprise us with what they have up their sleeves but I wouldn’t hold my breath.

My bet is still with IEBC and Jubilee, even if the court were to bend over backwards in response to Raila’s accusation against it. For one, it is highly unlikely, in my view, that NASA would have earth-shattering evidence on irregularities which none of the election observers picked up. In any case, if NASA had such evidence, it is improbable that they would have waited this long to lay it bare to the world. The charade we have witnessed so far, come nowhere close to fury we witnessed in 2007. This begs the question why they have decided to go to the Supreme Court.

This is not because of the attacks on civil society as they cited in their speech; that is not what presidential petitions are for. My wager, is that the decision to go to court is informed by the congruence of three potent factors: narrowed options, 2022 politics and Raila’s legacy.

First, as internal and external stakeholders demonstrate acceptance of the process and outcome of the election, the world has caved-in on NASA. Their list of options has narrowed. Their biggest loss must have been the swift response by international bodies asking that they concede or go to court.

Second, the calculations of the other NASA leaders about the 2022 election explain the disagreement on mass action. Those who were pro-mass actions must be looking to inherit the die-hard Raila supporters by demonstrating loyalty to him, assuming he sticks to his word and doesn’t run again.

Those against mass action must have reckoned with the reality that they will never inherit that vote block and don’t want to be plagued by a violence tag as they seek redemption in 2022.

Third, politics of the petition at the Supreme Court presents Raila with the best exit option that will also secure his legacy. He’s already sought to frame the contest as a chance for the court to redeem itself or certify another stolen victory. Facts be damned! He will go out as a victim of ‘dark forces’ that constantly robbed him of his victory.

- The writer is a researcher and analyst in Nairobi. [email protected]