Why Ruto’s political ark may not survive the post-2017 storm

Ruto’s political ark may not survive stormy political floods after 2017

While all political eyes are set upon the 2017 prize, the Deputy President’s glorious reward lays in 2022. And that is where his eyes are fixed. Because of that, William Ruto in his infinite political wisdom, saw it fit to set in motion a monolithic one-party experiment in the form of Jubilee Party. And he pushed this agenda for one shrewd strategic motive: premium political insurance.

Ruto’s foresight was informed by two factors. The first is the simple fact that he needs the Central Kenya block to propel him to a 2022 presidency. A single Kanu-like ‘ruling party’ that amalgamates county level political contenders, and enables Ruto to work towards lining them up as pawns on his chess board.

The second factor is driven by a sneaky suspicion that the Deputy President has silently harboured since 2013. This suspicion is based on the fact that political promises are made to be broken. And it means the next stage in the presidential relay that he began with President Kenyatta is not guaranteed to end with the baton in Ruto’s hand. To add insult to injury, Ruto is well aware of the dynastic interests that intend to edge him out. He knows the only way he can therefore negate these ‘machinations of the elite’ is whip up a tsunami of grassroots support. The best way to achieve this is to begin an ‘accumulation’ of Central Kenya politicians on his side. This works as a genius but highly risky move - getting someone’s assurance of support five years in advance is a big risk, particularly if that ‘someone’ is a politician. But the DP is smart - and knows how to employ political incentives and deterrents for situations just like these. He has the ability to, among other things, promise ‘eternal and everlasting’ political life.

The role of Central Kenya politicians therefore becomes to assure their constituents that Ruto is not the enemy, he can be trusted and he is the man to take over from their ‘muthamaki’.

While the monolithic Kanu-like party serves Ruto’s purpose well, it comes with an unintended and unpleasant by-product. Historically, every electoral cycle brings with it anxiety over potential unrest. This electoral violence is usually inter-tribal; a perennial ethnic struggle dictated by where our leaders have steered us to direct our anger. This time, however, the ‘all-important party’ brings about a new dimension: ‘home-turf wars’. This infighting will be driven by the political do-or-die over party tickets. And this risk will be present before and after nominations.

As it turns out, the areas of contestation will most likely be the cosmopolitan counties and Central Kenya. Already, symptoms of these wars of desperation have been recorded in Nairobi, Nakuru, Kirinyaga, Kiambu, Murang’a and Kajiado. In all these counties, the bone of contention was the elections to pick county officials to preside over the Jubilee primaries.

In Nakuru, the process was disrupted when Nakuru Town East MP David Gikaria was involved in a fist-fight with his rival’s supporters. In Embu County supporters of Lenny Kivuti clashed with those of Cecily Mbarire. At the Bomas of Kenya, the election was disrupted by supporters of Mike Sonko and Starehe MP Maina Kamanda over claims of rigging.

Party tensions

 

In Kirinyaga, Governor Joseph Ndathi’s allies clashed with supporters of former Devolution Cabinet Secretary Anne Waiguru. In Murang’a, Governor Mwangi wa Iria’s supporters locked horns with Kigumo MP Jamaleck Kamau’s allies. In the Rift Valley, on the other hand, these party tensions appear to be diffused by the existence of viable alternatives. The Jubilee Party is after all, not the be-all-and-end all for every political aspirant. In Bomet and Baringo for instance, Chama Cha Mashinani and Kanu are feasible vehicles to political victory- while still supporting the grand coalitions at the executive level.

At the end of the day, as Ruto works toward a 2022 presidency by orchestrating a political class that would support his bid, he should be aware of a counter productive wave that may undo, and in fact negate his efforts. This includes disgruntled politicians in Central Kenya that are popular but feel ‘unfairly’ left out of Ruto’s grand 2022 scheme. And there is also the inevitable realisation that the monolithic party experiment actually doesn’t work. It may end up as a guilefully put-together ‘Ruto Political Ark’ which may not survive the stormy political floods post 2017.

– The writer is a Ph.D candidate in Political Economy at SMC University, Switzerland and a Research Fellow at the Fort Hall School of Government