Opinion: My bet on Kalonzo Musyoka’s next move

Wiper Party leader Kalonzo Musyoka. (Photo: Beverlyne Musili/Standard)

Back in 2007, Deputy President William Ruto hosted Raila Odinga and Kalonzo Musyoka for breakfast. Mr Ruto like these two was also gunning for ODM presidential nomination ticket.

But Ruto played a trick on Mr Musyoka, the man he would later chide as having clung to the race in pursuit of his late mother’s dream; that the son of Tseikuru would one day rule Kenya, didn’t tell him Mr Odinga would be present.

Turns out Ruto, who had a warm spot for Musyoka, was finally convinced that Kalenjins’ determination to teach then President Mwai Kibaki a political lesson for humiliating retired President Daniel Moi and the sacking of top Kalenjin professionals was irreversible. So he spaced out the invitation.

Mr Odinga arrived so earlier than Mr Musyoka. It is claimed that Mr Ruto told Mr Odinga: “For us to win my brother, we will back you and Mr Musyoka should be your running mate.” When Mr Musyoka walked in probably with the heart racing expecting Mr Ruto would endorse him, Mr Odinga aides say, Steve (as his peers refer to him) was shocked to find the man who would later be Prime Minister in the Karen home.

That breakfast changed Kenya’s history for three reasons that are relevant in the alliances we are witnessing now. It precipitated the exit of Mr Musyoka, who was left with the original Orange party, which he then used to form an alliance with Julia Ojiambo, something that spread the joke of a ‘wedding’ of Steve and Julia.

In 2005, Musyoka had heroically stood up to Kibaki and opposed the first constitutional referendum, alongside Cabinet colleagues Anyang’ Nyong’o, William Ntimama, Ochilo Ayacko, Najib Balala and Mr Odinga.

After suffering a humiliating defeat, Mr Kibaki sacked them from the Cabinet.The breakfast thrust Mr Musyoka’s into the trenches where he campaigned on the platform of ‘Mr Clean’ and with the vow that ‘nitapitia kati kati ya Kibaki na Raila’ (I’ll slip in between them).

What was being seen as a joke turned to be cunning trick that would become reality when Mr Musyoka agreed to be Mr Kibaki’s Vice President as the country bled. The narrow and almost indistinguishable gap between Mr Kibaki and Mr Odinga would have been too obvious had Mr Musyoka stuck with his earlier cast of Orange team. Violence ensued in the aftermath of the disputed Presidential election results.

But what was in Mr Musyoka’s mind? In 2002, he stunned Kanu bigwigs by defecting to the Opposition in protest against Moi’s decision to pick the inexperienced Uhuru Kenyatta as his preferred successor. Also fleeing Kanu was Mr Odinga and former VP George Saitoti as well as Mr Ntimama and Joseph Kamotho.

Still here, Mr Musyoka was convinced that he was the most trusted and without blemish and sought to be recognised. That was not to be because of that Kibaki Tosha (is fit) historic endorsement by Mr Odinga. Mr Musyoka shortly cooled his heels in the Opposition. When the Rainbow Alliance won, he was back in the Cabinet. In 2013, Mr Musyoka had served as Vice president and as a normal and ambitious politician; the only way to go was up. He started the bid by trying to squeeze himself between Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto (remember the KKK alliance?).

However, the younger men soon nudged him aside on the basis he was as young as his looks, and secondly, that they were convinced Mr Musyoka was sticking to them with a silent prayer that he would be the favourite if their crimes against humanity cases at The Hague went the other way. Mr Kenyatta gleefully likened him to a hyena salivating and following a man, thinking that his swinging arms would fall off.

When the Number One post looked like it was running away from him, Mr Musyoka made the drastic and desperate decision to join Mr Odinga, hoping that they would win and he would at least be back in the office he held under Mr Kibaki. He must have determined that would be Mr Odinga’s last stab at the Presidency and so he signed an MoU that ‘Tinga’ (Mr Odinga) would just go for one term.

Now the UhuRuto’s first term has flown like wind and here we are approaching another election where the Jubilee duo are seeking re-election while Mr Musyoka is in an unpredictable alliance called NASA with the same folks in the original orange except Mr Ruto.

Several complications stand in his way. Mr Odinga has to run and is favourite for the ticket outside a boardroom deal. Also, Musalia Mudavadi who had abandoned them in 2002 to be Moi’s VP, is also in as well as Moses Wetang’ula.

He has been told that the MoU he signed with Odinga was within the context of CORD, not NASA, and that in any case, Mr Odinga did not get the one term they envisaged.

Also, Mr Musyoka isn’t growing young, he has the pressure from Ukambani not to cede ground or they back Jubilee, and still, Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto are beckoning with a deal that could give him at worst a slice of Jubilee government bread in September if they win.

And he is not a fool. He knows he stands a better chance of getting a deal with either of the winning side if he runs alone. It can’t be for nothing that it is only Kalonzo in NASA who is the subject of speculation that he is up to something. And if he jumps, Kenyatta and Ruto will have a party in the evening.

Mr Tanui is the Standard Group Deputy Editorial Director and Managing Editor [email protected]