Opposition unity doesn't guarantee victory

Nasa leaders KANU's Nick Salat (from left) Moses Wetangula of Ford-Kenya,Musalia Mudavadi ,Amani,Raila Odinga of ODM and Kalonzo Musyoka of Wiper during the NASA Convention at Bomas of Kenya,Nairobi. (Photo/Elvis Ogina/Standard)

News of the opposition super-alliance is good for Kenya’s democracy. As a country, we desperately need to cultivate well-established and sufficiently delineated political blocs with distinct policy positions. Only then will wananchi make political choices based on predictable and believable policy promises.

 It is fair to say our current set up — in which elections are nothing more than ethnic census — is far from this ideal. Opposition unity, even though founded on the basis of ethnic arithmetic, is a step in the right direction.

If the alliances hold, in a few cycles we will project specific ideological and policy positions onto these blocs as if they have always had them. That said, opposition unity alone will not win the presidency in 2017.

Even if united, the current constellation of politicians in the proposed NASA entity will not generate sufficient numbers to beat Jubilee. They have to bite into part of the coalition that voted for Jubilee in 2013. Therefore, a campaign based on demonising Jubilee and its supporters, and creating a sense of it-is-us-versus-them will not succeed. And should not succeed.

The last thing we need is another crop of divisive politicians that see our politics as a zero sum game. In the absence of a clearly articulated policy agenda that will address real issues faced by citizens, Kenyans should not vote for the opposition simply because they are not Jubilee. Full stop.

And so former Prime Minister Raila Odinga and his allies have their work cut out for them. Not only do they have to concretely think of policy positions, but they must also devise strategies of winning over wavering Jubilee supporters. In other words, if the opposition is to win the election this August, they need to both energise their base, which has historically had relatively lower registration and voter turnout rates, on top of appealing to parts of the Jubilee alliance strongholds willing to switch sides. This is just pure maths. It is also good for the country.

Should the opposition win, the country will be in a better place if some of those who voted for Jubilee in 2013 switched sides. This would serve as a lesson not just for Jubilee, but for the political class as a whole – the lesson being that those who do not perform while in office lose elections. But if the opposition wins purely based on votes from regions that are currently “not in government” then it will be evidence of continued failure of our political market.

In the same vein, Jubilee must make a concerted effort to reach out to opposition areas. This is not only just good politics. It is also part of best practice in state and nation building.

I do not always agree with Mutahi Ngunyi, but his recent column in this newspaper was spot on regarding this issue. It is the case that Jubilee has failed miserably on the question of inclusivity in its administration.

 The question of whether this is based on objective fact or mere perception is immaterial. This is what Kenyans believe, and it is the basis upon which they continue to engage in political action. As the incumbent administration, the onus is on Jubilee to take steps that will ensure the country is run in a manner that demonstrates to all that Kenya belongs to all of us, equally. It is my hope that President Kenyatta and his deputy William Ruto will find it in them to make the effort to separate the offices they occupy from their personal political activities throughout this year’s election cycle.

It bears repeating that there are certain utterances, or political styles that ought to be out of bounds for those who occupy the highest offices in the land. In addition, while Jubilee can certainly win without reaching out to gain votes in opposition areas, such a victory will lack legitimacy if it is perceived to be a further reinforcement of the so-called “tyranny of numbers.” For the sake of the republic, it is imperative that Jubilee campaigns and reaches out to opposition areas.