After ICC, new trap entices NASA

Nick Salat and Musalia Mudavadi with CORD leaders during the unveiling of NASA at the Bomas of Kenya.

Just like many Kenyans, I watched with keen interest and insatiable curiosity the coming together of the new political bloc – the National Super-Alliance (NASA) on Wednesday.

It was obvious the response by Jubilee was going to be instant and bare-fanged. Today, the Jubilee brigade will have their day and we shall move closer to the return match between the two main groupings in August.

However, I probably share with a few of you my own misgivings about the way NASA started off its engines. Hold on a little, we shall come to that. Let us talk about our history. In 1992, President Moi had an easy win because a fragmented Opposition lost an opportunity to trounce Kanu at that year’s elections– Jaramogi Oginga Odinga, Stanley Kenneth Njindo Matiba and Mwai Kibaki all vied.

Though their combined votes outnumbered those of Kanu’s Daniel T. arap Moi, they were insignificant because of the simple majority (first-past-the-goal) rule in presidential elections then.

The same would be replayed in 1997 when again, the main Opposition candidates all ran against President Moi; Kibaki, Raila Odinga, Kijana Wamalwa and Charity Ngilu.

In 2002, the tide changed against President Moi’s preferred successor, Uhuru Kenyatta when the key Opposition leaders and captains of sizeable tribal fiefdoms - except Simeon Nyachae – all teamed up reportedly at the prodding Odinga to support Kibaki.

Those who chose to wait to fight another day included two former vice presidents Kalonzo Musyoka and George Saitoti, as well as Wamalwa, Ngilu, the late William Ole Ntimama and the late Joseph Kamotho. Kenyatta, the Kanu candidate, was political mincemeat.

A decade later, he would bounce back as President, with William Ruto - who stood forlornly by him as he conceded defeat - as his Deputy.

So there is logic and historical proof that ethnic constellation and mobilisation through alliances and tribal zoning gives one the assurance of owning the knife and the yam.

This scenario must have buoyed the dancing troupe of Odinga, Musyoka, Musalia Mudavadi (the latest entrant!), Moses Wetang'ula and Nick Salat (Kanu). Coast was represented by Mombasa Governor Hassan Joho.

The soft underbelly of this NASA thing wasn’t even the absence of substantive Kalenjin leaders (except the ‘token’ presence of Salat) and Kikuyu leaders; the two communities that constitute the Jubilee vertebrate’s spinal column.

We can understand this from the fact that if Odinga were not going to be the candidate, the equation may change with Kalenjins and Kikuyus who have been socialised to believe that other than Satan, Raila is the worst enemy of their communities.

There are several pitfalls NASA must avoid: First, that it is made up of bitter losers of the last election.

There is also the perception, which Mr Odinga seemed to address when he talked of an ongoing expansion of the new alliance, that it lacks representation of key political constituencies across Kenya. Recall that the ODM juggernaut of 2007 had something called the Pentagon?

Stubborn Orange sympathisers credit Raila’s ‘first stolen victory’ to this team. The Pentagon members were Odinga (Luo), Mudavadi (Luhya) Joe Nyagah (Mt Kenya), Ngilu (Kamba), Najib Balala (Coast) and Ruto (Kalenjin).

From this comparison alone, you can see the bulk of work and networking NASA has to do before shooting its spacecraft up the Kenyan political sky.

The other sticky issue which seemed to be accentuated by Senator Bonny Khalwale’s piling of caps of various parties on Odinga’s head, is whether Odinga will be the automatic flag bearer or the ‘kingmaker’ that Musyoka and Wetang'ula want him to be. When it is him (Raila), the tribal tectonic plates will take that natural pattern we all know. Well, the movement still has the headache of picking its flag bearer, and only then will it be clear what momentum it can gather.

But let us come to the crux of the matter; the acronym NASA sounded sweet to the ears of those opposed to Jubilee, but then when Mr Mudavadi introduced a Swahili line with a foreboding meaning: NASA; a rallying call for the arrest of the corrupt and those who have let the country down.

Now, does the ICC spin by UhuRuto ring a bell? That they were political martyrs being sacrificed because of the political capital they represented in their communities. And have you heard about the latest conspiracy; that the crimes against humanity cases at the International Criminal Court (ICC) were plotted by some members of the Kalenjin community? Don’t be fooled, ICC still has currency.

When you make such threats, then it is (mis)construed that you are on a vengeance, rather than a healing mission, and then of course the usual suspects will use that to ring-fence themselves using their tribes, obviously using all manner of lies. That is what NASA did on day one. It has literally immersed its foot into the waters teeming with Jubilee political crocodiles.

Finally, two things to watch – the influence of Jubilee’s deep pockets; and the public’s fatigue with graft and tribalism, as well as Jubilee’s own problems with the nomination of candidates at all levels.

Many think this is the time bomb that both movements are sitting on and some guys will be left with bare bottoms when it detonates. Next week we talk about Jubilee.