Why Opposition stands better chance

 

Political expediency legitimises the rapport between the Orange Democratic Movement and former critics.

Ali Chirau Makwere is not renowned for his exemplary service as a Cabinet Minister. He is famous for the obnoxious quip he made on Raila Odinga during President Kibaki’s rule. For a government cobbled for convenience more than anything else, and given the circumstances that led to its creation, mistrust reigned.

Raila once complained of not getting VIP treatment; the red carpet often associated with officialdom and a VIP toilet at an official function. That tickled Makwere’s fancy. Later, Makwere joked that a toilet should be permanently attached to Raila’s car. It was as jejune as it was uncalled-for, but he had his day and relished it.

Although Jubilee in its infancy promised a digital leadership, it sought to consolidate its base by warming up to the old guard to give it the façade of inclusiveness. The experiment was a flop and the old guard soon discovered they did not fit into the scheme of things. Ambassadorial appointments and chairmanship of parastatals were meant as inducements to keep them quiet and away from the Opposition.

It baffles many that Raila should readily welcome Makwere into ODM. The acceptance is driven more by need than principle. Makwere is seeking relevance. He is a drowning man who latches on the leafy trunk floating nearby for survival.

There is no love lost between the two, but as objectionable as Makwere might be, he has a following. Given that incumbency and control of government institutions gives Jubilee the advantage, the Opposition needs numbers to upstage Jubilee in 2017, but there is a catch; newcomers must not carry the baggage of corruption with them into the Opposition.

The supposed independence of the electoral commission is a fallacy. The Government directly or indirectly determines who serves in the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission. Jubilee’s reluctance to let go of commissioners of the discredited IEBC until the Opposition’s 'every Monday siege’ on Anniversary Towers forced it to reconsider was a dead give-away.

Because the Constitution attaches time frames to constitutional offices, Jubilee pretended to go along with the Opposition’s demand while scheming to betray any consensus by the Joint Select Parliamentary Committee. Jubilee has been procrastinating, buying time as we inexorably draw closer to next year’s elections. The panel selected to choose IEBC office bearers deliberately fumbled and had to re-advertise. The September 30 deadline by which new IEBC commissioners were to be in office is two months gone but still there is no sign of headway.

It is probable that given the time left, the Issack Hassan-led IEBC will oversee preparations for next year’s elections, including purchases and hiring of staff who will preside over the elections.

If the current IEBC office leaves at the end of the month, the new commissioners would need time to find their footing and that could mean postponing the elections; a scenario the Opposition rejects. If elections go on as scheduled, they will be ill-prepared-for and therefore shambolic.

The loser will have legitimate reasons to dispute the outcome. Already, President Kenyatta appears resigned to the looming possibility of a defeat. He used Jamhuri day celebrations to lay grounds for challenging an outcome that does not favour him in 2017. Adroitly, he focused attention on unnamed foreign governments which, he claimed, are trying to influence the outcome of next year’s elections. The ICC question worked for him once, it won’t a second time.

Corruption barrages have disoriented Jubilee. It is limping along on a dog lead that CORD holds. CORD dictates Jubilee's agenda, for it only has to mention something, anything and Jubilee picks up the refrain with such pep it is laughable.

Frantic rallies where Jubilee leaders talk about nothing but ‘Raila’, or continuously deny allegations against the Government by CORD attest to this. They have been reduced to the base level of personality attacks; hiding behind obscure projects they claim to be their own while indeed most were initiated by the coalition government. There is nothing new or invigorating the President and a retinue of clueless loyalists are telling Kenyans.

Other than creating curiosity about Raila, they will be suffering burnout, yet the Opposition has demonstrated it hasn’t even shown its ace card yet. William Ruto’s deportment is a burden to Jubilee.

It grates on both friend and foe. His knack to burn bridges and antagonise is legendary but interestingly, it does not faze him in the least. The pentagon, less him, is regrouping and that leaves him with egg all over his face.

It remains to be seen whether the Opposition will wrest maximum benefits from Jubilee’s paralysis. A well-coordinated super alliance spells doom for Jubilee as it labours under the heavy yoke of corruption. Experiences from Gambia and Ghana don’t aid Uhuruto’s cause. If anything, they simply prove unseating Jubilee is nothing bigger than the Opposition speaking in one voice.