Mombasa governor aspirants target ethnic blocs in tight race

Current Mombasa Governor Ali Hassan Joho. With the General Election less than a year away, aspirants in the race for the Mombasa governorship are already courting various ethnic voting blocs in the county. (PHOTO: COURTESY)

With the General Election less than a year away, aspirants in the race for the Mombasa governorship are already courting various ethnic voting blocs in the county.

Analysts believe these voting blocs will play a key role in the polls.

The aspirants are keen to enlist running mates from the ethnic blocs they believe will guarantee them a head start in the cosmopolitan region, where non-indigenous groups account for 65 per cent of the voting population.

Anania Mwaboza, who has thrown his hat in the race to unseat Hassan Joho, says he is counting on the support of groups that have migrated to the Coast over the years.

“I want upcountry communities to help me choose my running mate. I call upon the Mijikenda to unite so that we can attract support from other communities to enable us win,” said Mwaboza, who will be  against Mombasa Senator Hassan Omar, Nyali MP Hezron Awiti and businessman Suleiman Shahbal allied to the former TNA wing of Jubilee, if they secure their party's nomination.

Mwaboza, the only politician who has ever beaten Joho in an election — in the 2005 Kisauni parliamentary by-election — will be banking on the support of his populous Mijikenda community and voters who migrated from inland and settled at the Coast.

Although his quest to become Kisauni MP failed in 2013 when he only got 4,000 votes, he still believes support from the sizeable migrant communities can work for him.

Figures released by the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) in 2013 indicate that the Mijikenda make up 29 per cent of Mombasa County voters, while those from Nyanza account for 16 per cent, with the Akamba accounting for 15 per cent. Those from Western Kenya account for 13 per cent of the vote, with the ethnic Swahili/Arab accounting for 2.5 per cent.

Past performance

But support from these voters will not be enough to secure victory for a candidate like Mwaboza, said Dr Hassan Mwakimako, a political  commentator from Pwani University.

“People will also look at the past to assess how he (Mwaboza) performed during his three years as Kisauni MP,” said Dr Mwakimako.

Awiti, from a migrant community from Nyanza, says he is determined to be on the ballot and plans to have a running mate from the Mijikenda community.

Awiti has been courting local communities, while Mwaboza has been focusing on migrant groups and holding meetings with some of their leaders in recent weeks.

The deliberate courtship of different ethnic groups was quite evident in the last polls. Joho, a Swahili-Arab, settled on Hazel Katana, an ethic Mijikenda, as his running mate, while Shahbal’s Mijikenda pick was Emmanuel Nzai.

Commentators say that this time, however, the migrant communities will most likely demand to be rewarded by being nominated to run for parliamentary or county assembly seats.

“It will be negotiated democracy given that the county is cosmopolitan,” said Mombasa lawyer Denis Omari.

Scholar Halim Shauri has a different view. He says the ethnic vote will be split, with most Giriama and Central Kenya voters opting for Mwaboza if he is on the ticket.

He says Joho and Omar will share the Muslim votes and votes from other Mijikenda ethnic groups since they both have blood ties with some of these clans.

Halim believes most Nyanza and Western Kenya voters will back the ODM candidate, especially if Awiti runs on a ticket of another political party. He says Nyanza voters will most likely stick with Joho, despite their ethnic affiliation with Awiti.

However, he believes the Mijikenda will splinter along clan lines and “will not put all their votes in one basket”. The Muslim vote will therefore be shared between Shahbal, Joho and Omar.

Dr Mwakimako noted that despite its huge numbers in Mombasa, the Akamba did not produce an MP or MCA in 2013. However, this time they may rally behind Omar,"  he observed.