Raila Odinga's rough and slippery road in quest for power

Raila Odinga shielded by his security detail during the chaotic FORD-Kenya elections of 1996

Kenya: In 1990, he was among the key organisers of the first Saba Saba rally but on July 5, two days to the big day, he was arrested and detained. Supporters of the Coalition for Reforms and Democracy (CORD) leader, Raila Amolo Odinga, hope history will not repeat itself this time around.

The same fate befell former Cabinet Minister Kenneth Matiba and former Nairobi Mayor Charles Rubia, who had made the initial and formal proclamation of the Saba Saba protests. The government had hoped the mass protests would die in the absence of the top architects—Raila, Matiba and Rubia.

However, the late veteran politician Martin Shikuku, Siaya Governor James Orengo and former Imenti Central MP Gitobu Imanyara led remnants of the top organisers into street protests that turned chaotic and bloody. The image of the three atop a pickup mounted with speakers and attempting to storm the Kamkunji grounds  —the venue of the planned rally — remains etched in the minds of many.

In essence, Raila did not participate in the initial Saba Saba rally. The State kept him behind bars, releasing him a year later on June 21, 1991.

Courtesy of the current Constitution, this time around, Opposition sympathisers can rest easy because it is unlikely that the Government would use similar tactics to lock up the CORD leaders. The only way out is to stop Raila through legal means — an avenue that Nairobi Senator Mike Mbuvi Sonko has already exploited but overruled by Justice Isaac Lenaola.

House arrest

To date, only the 1990 and 2014 Saba Saba events have been organised elaborately. Through the years, the day went on sometimes unnoticed. This was particularly the case after the repealing of Section 2A of the old Constitution that ushered in the second phase of multi-party politics.

Between these two major Saba Saba dates, Raila has walked a slippery, thorny, hilly and sometimes fulfilling political path. In the process, he has earned allies and foes alike, and built and wrecked political careers of many.

Upon his release from incarceration in June 1991, Raila fled the country to Norway, following fears that there were people plotting to assassinate him. Earlier, the son of Kenya’s first Vice President Jaramogi Oginga Odinga had been placed under house arrest for seven months after evidence pointing to his collaboration with the plotters of a failed coup attempt against President Daniel arap Moi in 1982. Raila was later charged with treason and detained without trial for six years. He was rearrested in September 1988 for his active anti-government agitation.

At the time of his departure to Norway in 1991, a giant opposition outfit — the Forum for the Restoration of Democracy (FORD) — was being formed. Raila returned after the repeal of Section 2A to join FORD-Kenya (following a split of the original FORD, the other wing being led by Matiba), whose leader was his father, Jaramogi. This momentarily created a challenge to the ambitious Raila, then aged 47.

Their solid roles in the struggle notwithstanding, father and son could not share powerful positions in the same party. Raila was accordingly relegated to a junior position of Vice Chairman of the General Purposes Committee of the party and later “elevated” to the post of deputy director of elections.

Bold statement

On the other hand, Raila’s contemporaries like Paul Muite and Michael Kijana Wamalwa were handed plum positions of first and second deputy party leader  respectively. Raila was unhappy with the arrangement and sent a protest message to his father and Ford-Kenya leadership.

During the party’s national elections (a mere formal exercise after the seats had been shared out) held at Nairobi City stadium in late 1992, Raila entered the stadium late with hundreds of twig-waving youths in tow. An agitated Jaramogi, who was then on the podium, ordered him: “Amolo! Amolo! Tell your boys to shut up!”

Raila had made a major political statement that he had the masses behind him and was a power to reckon with. After his father’s death in 1994, he sought to wrestle the leadership of the Ford-Kenya party from Wamalwa.

 

Following a chaotic poll exercise presided over by Anglican Bishop Manasses Kuria, Raila opted out of a repeat exercise, choosing instead to quit the party to join National Development Party (NDP). In the process, he became the first MP to boldly quit Parliament to seek re-election. He successfully recaptured his Lang’ata parliamentary seat.

He finished third after Moi and Mwai Kibaki in the presidential elections of 1997. Raila then warmed up to Moi towards 2001 by disbanding NDP and leading his troops to a merger with Kanu, where he served as party Secretary General and Energy Minister under Moi. Apparently Raila’s entry into Kanu was part of a wider political implosion scheme against the independence party whose leadership had tormented him through the years. The best opportunity came in 2002 when Moi endorsed Uhuru Kenyatta, then a nominated MP barely a year in Parliament, as his preferred successor.

Bad blood

Raila led hitherto diehard Kanu loyalists such as the then Vice President, the late Prof George Saitoti, Kalonzo Musyoka, J.J. Kamotho and Moody Awori out of the party in protest. The Kanu rebels took over the leadership of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) which would team up with Kibaki’s National Alliance party of Kenya (NAK) in 2002.

LDP and NAK merged to form the National Rainbow Coalition (Narc) in a pre-election Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) pact where Kibaki would serve as President, Wamalwa as VP and Raila as Prime Minister. But once in State House, Kibaki disregarded the pact, leading to bad blood between him and Raila.

Their differences led to rebellion by Raila and some of the initial LDP members, including Kalonzo, who campaigned against the government in the 2005 constitutional referendum. The “No” side, represented by an Orange, won the day leading to the formation of the Orange Democratic Movement–Kenya (ODM–Kenya).

Kibaki accordingly fired the renegade members of ODM from his Cabinet, including Raila, Kalonzo, Anyang’ Nyong’o, William Ntimama, Najib Balala, Jebii Kilimo and Ochillo Ayacko. This only served to strengthen the force which had joined hands with Kanu under the leadership of then Opposition leader Uhuru Kenyatta in the referendum. Among the big fish netted during the referendum campaigns was Eldoret North MP William Ruto.

But the Orange dream became difficult to manage with Raila and Kalonzo both fighting for the party’s presidential ticket. In the process, lawyer Daniel Maanzo, now Makueni MP, fled with the party’s certificate and handed it to Kalonzo. A desperate and partyless Raila was rescued by lawyer Mugambi Imanyara, who had separately registered the Orange Democratic Movement. Ruto, Balala, Musalia Mudavadi and Lands Cabinet Secretary Charity Ngilu teamed up with Raila under ODM.

Renewed push

The bitter Kibaki-Raila rivalry played out in the 2007 elections, leading to post-poll violence, with the two being compelled to share government under a peace deal brokered by former United Nations Secretary General Dr Kofi Annan. Five years later, it was a game of musical chairs again as Kalonzo and Ngilu swapped camps, with the former VP teaming up with Raila and Ngilu decamping to join Uhuru. Ruto also shifted camp to join Uhuru, where he now serves as Deputy President of Kenya.

Despite having served in the high position of Prime Minister and co-principal in a Grand Coalition, it appears Raila’s renewed political career is hinged on the success or failure of tomorrow’s Saba Saba rally.