IEBC conduct will determine aftermath of Tuesday's elections

The contested atmosphere and seeming organisational deficiencies of the polls raises significant concerns over the potential conduct of the election, and the reaction to its result. To date, the elections lead-up has been characterised by conflicting opinion polls, leaked documents, debate no-shows, enforced disappearances and desperate political manoeuvres. In perhaps the most dramatic development to date, Chris Msando, an IEBC ICT official was found murdered on July 31. Msando’s death is the latest sign of the raised tensions and risk of volatility ahead of the elections.

While Kenya has proven its resilience post crisis, there are renewed concerns circulating around the prospects for stability. The most decisive triggers that will determine the country’s political stability include the general conduct of IEBC, reactions of the losing party (presidential), the robustness of the security infrastructure and the will of the people.

Credible elections

It is essential that IEBC is able to organise a broadly credible election and avoid a shambolic logistical and administrative approach which could open the door to accusations of vote manipulation, prompting violence. Additionally, the manner in which the electoral results are delivered will also be critical.

A stark reminder of this is the 2007 announcement of the presidential results which was conducted in a confused and opaque manner, giving rise to speculations over ballot stuffing and consequently contributing to the spasm of violence which followed.

President Kenyatta and Raila Odinga will be accountable for how they manage their parties and followers. President Kenyatta has already stated that if he were to lose the election, he would concede defeat.

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Antithetically, Odinga has indicated that he would unlikely concede, particularly in the event there are electoral irregularities, as seems likely.

A contested outcome will not necessarily trigger instability on its own. But if it occurs in a context of a highly flawed poll, then the risk of a violent reaction will increase. But the relative independence of the judiciary provides some recourse, particularly at the legislative and county government level, though the presidential ticket is a more sensitive and significant matter to handle.

Kenya was never prepared for the scale and magnitude of the 2007/08 post-election violence. Since then, the state has sought to prevent a repeat performance. The government will most likely deploy a more robust security presence for the upcoming polls. Pre-emptive rather than reactive policing could be vital in ensuring the country’s stability. However, a fine balance needs to be struck between policing the polls and not being seen to enforce a police state and atmosphere of intimidation around the vote.

Resilience

Given previous crises, Kenya has constantly shown its ability to recover relatively quickly and effectively, underlining that the country’s political system and social fabric have mechanisms for reconciliation and compromise, especially when backed up by diplomatic process. The 2008 Government of National Unity was a testament of the country’s leaders’ willingness to work together to avoid a prolonged crisis and instability scenario.

As a further dynamic in the upcoming poll, broad access to internet and technology for the country’s growing youth population and the presence of an active media and civil society community provide an accountability buffer in monitoring the polls.

Increased public scrutiny reduces the risk of brazen rigging, but it also heightens the risk of unrest if local observers feel the results do not tally with what they have seen at the ballot station.

Amid heightened electoral uncertainty, Kenyans are bracing themselves for a turbulent few weeks. Given the political stakes at hand, a contested outcome with localised violence is the most likely scenario.

But even under a contested outcome scenario, the country’s relative institutional strength, political appetite for compromise and broader desire for peace is likely to enable Kenya to avert a major crisis.

Ms Cheramboss is a Consultant, Africapractice Intelligence & Analysis