Kenyans breeding faster than they can feed themselves

BY GATONYE GATHURA

Since the last national census in 2009 the country’s population is estimated to have increased by almost four million to stand at about 44 million, while the production of all major foods has either stagnated or declined.

The UN’s latest Word Population Prospects report says Kenya will grow from 44 million people in 2013 to 160 million in 2100.

According to the Global Agricultural Information Network, Kenya will continue to import all the five major food components which include maize, wheat, rice, beans and even potatoes.

The network projects that unless something very dramatic happens to increase food production several fold, the country’s food deficit will continue to grow because of population growth.

The population growth at about one million new citizens every year has affected food security in two ways; the extra mouths to feed means that the land earmarked for agricultural production declines.

The Kenya Agricultural Research Institute estimates that over 10 million people are food insecure with majority of them living on food relief.

Maize

This is the staple food in Kenya, consumed in various forms by 96 per cent of the population.

In the 1970s Kenya was self-sufficient in maize production, even exporting the surplus.

On average today Kenya produces about 27 million bags annually against a consumption of about 44 million bags.

It is estimated that on average, every Kenyan consumes one bag of maize annually.

Consequently by 2030 Kenya should be able to produce 73 million bags of maize to feed a population of the same size.

Wheat

Demand for wheat and wheat-based products cannot be met by domestic production which only meets a third of the national wheat requirements with imports filling two-thirds.

Kenya’s wheat imports grew at an annual average rate of nine per cent between 2006 and 2011.

Rice

The network says Kenya is only able to meet 20 per cent of its rice consumption needs due to production inefficiencies and increased demand.

The Ministry of Agriculture estimates annual consumption to increase at a rate of 12 per attributed to progressive change in eating habits particularly for urban consumers.

Pakistan, Vietnam, Thailand, and India supply Kenya with most of its rice imports. Tanzania also supplies a substantial amount through unrecorded cross border trade.

Beans

Production meets only 43 per cent of national beans requirement with heavy imports coming from Tanzania.

Potato

Production meets only 50 per cent of national potato requirement with imports coming in from Tanzania. Government records in 2008 indicate that Kenya produced 1.7 million tones against a demand of 3.3 million tonnes.

Meat

Kenya is generally said to be self-sufficient in most livestock products but is a net importer of red meat mostly in the form of animals trekked across the porous boundaries of the neighbouring countries of Somalia, Ethiopia, Sudan, Uganda and Tanzania.

The supply of red meat from domestic cattle, goats and camels falls short of demand, and is almost permanently augmented by a traditional livestock trade drawn in from neighbouring countries.

“The country depends on imports to bridge the gap in these staple foods and especially wheat and rice; periodically for maize when production fall below demand,” says Dr Wilson Songa the Agriculture Secretary.

Kenya, is ranked 50th on the 2011 Global Hunger Index, and classified as having a serious hunger problem.

In comparison, Ghana ranks 20, Uganda ranks 42, Tanzania is 58, Ethiopia is 77, Eritrea ranks 79, and Burundi is 80.

With a ranking of 81, the Democratic Republic of Congo has the highest level of hunger in the world.

Kenya will not meet the Millennium Development Goal related to undernutrition

Between January and May 2011, admissions to hospitals and community centres in Nairobi for treatment of severe acute malnutrition in young children increased by 62 per cent.

A person is malnourished if he or she does not have the energy to grow, recover from disease, become pregnant, lactate, or do physical work.

The US Feed the Future initiative says 35 per cent of children in Kenya under five are stunted and 16 per cent are underweight.

Between 2010 to 2030, under nutrition will cost Kenya approximately $38.3 billion (Sh 3.2 trillion) in GDP due to losses in workforce productivity.

In a more practical demonstration last year almost all those who turned up for recruitment into the Kenya Defence Forces did not meet required weight of 54.9 Kg

More than half of those who turned up in Mandera County were underweight.

Of the five women who had turned up for the recruitment, only two were of the required weight.

In divisions such as Lafey and Arabia, it was reported that of the four candidates who turned up, all were too light to be recruited.

Kenya’s agriculture sector employs more than 75 per cent of the workforce and accounts both directly and indirectly for approximately 51 per cent of Kenya’s gross domestic product (GDP).

Two to four million people receive food aid annually. Forty-six per cent of the population lives below the poverty line.

To demonstrate how vulnerable and food insecure Kenya is, the National Famine Early Warning Systems Network says the food situation currently is stable though maize prices could be expected to climb to an all five year high between August and September

Current stocks are expected to last through to September with replenishments expected from early harvest from the South Rift Valley and imports from neighboring Tanzania and Uganda between August and September. In the event of failure of the current crop, Kenya would almost slip into a food crisis almost overnight, a true example of a hand to mouth life.