Global wars: When will they cease?

Palestinians walk amid the rubble of buildings in Beit Lahia in the northern Gaza Strip on March 4, 2025. [AFP]

“... And they shall beat their swords into ploughshares, and their spears into pruning hooks; nation shall not lift up sword against nation, neither shall they learn war anymore.” - Isaiah 2:4.

If only this could come sooner.

It’s Sunday, and we should ask why conflicts and wars define our planet. Why not peace and tranquillity?

For starters, the Ukraine war is now in its third year, and no one can tell when it will end despite US President Donald Trump’s promise to end it once he became president.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine, it seems, is part of a long game. The longer the war continues, the more the West appears helpless.

How long will the West (read the US and Europe) support Ukraine without voter fatigue?   

The economic impact may be even dire. Threatened by Russia, Europe will shift more resources to defence, even in countries like Germany.

Will that hurt social services delivery and voters?  What if the countries start borrowing to shore up their defence?

More public debt, perhaps? Remember, one of the contentious issues between the US and the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) was more investment in defence. The fear haunting Europe is who will be next if Ukraine falls. Such fear prolonged the Vietnam War.

Remember the domino theory?  The war in Ukraine, it seems, will not stop soon. No side wants to capitulate. With Ukraine hitting deeply into Russia, the war is likely to remain frozen, a forever war. The Ukraine war end-game seems simple: expand the Russian influence, restore the grandeur of the old Russia.

More poignant is who the other players in this war are. Who supplies Russia with weapons and fighters?

Who helps Russia break the sanctions? Does China play any role, directly or indirectly? Who were the key players in the Vietnam War?

Is the Ukraine war about resources, national pride, or ideology? The inability to conclusively answer that question may prolong the war. Enter Gaza, the strip of land by the Mediterranean that has refused to leave the headlines. It all started with Hamas, the Palestinian resistance group lightning attack on Israel, and taking hostages. That cracked the myth of Israel’s invincibility. And Israel, to its traditions, did not leave its enemies at peace.

Hamas is backed by Iran, which possibly supplies weapons and fighters. It’s aligned with Sunni Muslims. Across the border in Lebanon is Hezbollah, another resistance group opposed to Israel and with its links to Iran. 

Ideology, land, religion, search for regional hegemony have made Gaza another frozen war. Other key players in this war include Jordan, which hosts Palestinian refugees; Saudi Arabia, a rival to Iran; Yemen, whose rebels support the Palestinian cause; and Iraq, which has its share of resistance.

Add Egypt, which neighbours Gaza, and Lebanon, home to Hezbollah. Qatar has been hosting peace negotiators.

Syria, with a new government, is a key player; it neighbours Israel, an easy conduit for weapons and fighters in this conflict.

America backs Israel. Have you noted the mention of antisemitism in Trump’s “war” with elite universities? 

The end-game in Gaza is unclear, the conflict has been ongoing since the creation of Israel in 1967. 

The two-state solution has been floated. Too many cooks spoil the broth; it seems that too many players make it hard to resolve the Gaza conflict and its toll on civilians.  

Gaza and Ukraine have taken all the airtime in global conflicts, but there are many others. Myanmar, formerly Burma, is in a civil war.

A military coup in 2021 deposed a democratically elected government, and a civil war erupted between the military and several insurgent groups that existed even before the coup.

Refugees, particularly Rohingya, a Muslim minority, are a big issue in this region. China is a key player in this conflict, which seems endless like the other two.

I have a special connection to Myanmar, or Burma. Two of my uncles and a number of my neighbours fought there in World War II and luckily came home. I hope to visit the country someday, when peace prevails. 

Closer home, Sudan has been embroiled in a deadly civil war. The Sudanese army is pitted against the RSF, a militia formed by the government to fight its dirty wars.

It became too powerful to challenge the army. The Sudan case is sad. We thought a partition would bring peace to once Africa’s biggest country.

The conflict in Sudan supports the hypothesis: the longer a dictator leads a country, the higher the chances of prolonged conflict after his death or disposal. Think of Iraq, Libya, or Yugoslavia. Key players in Sudan include Middle Easterners and Kenyans in the periphery. Like the other three conflicts, the end is not nigh. 

Across the Red Sea is another hot spot, Yemen. Two regional powers, Saudi Arabia (plus the UAE) and Iran, are in a proxy war, through a civil war with links to Gaza.  

Houthis from Yemen have fired missiles into Israel while attacking ships that use the Suez Canal. Houthis are friendly to Hezbollah, with Iran as the common denominator.

The history of discrimination and ideologies is behind the Yemeni civil war. Add religion with Sunni and Shia Muslims to the mix. How can we forget Sahel? The transition zone between the Savanah and the Sahara Desert?

United Nations Economic Commission for Africa Sahel list includes Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Gambia, Guinea, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal, and Chad. 

The region is under conflict, pitting their governments against insurgents that include jihadists. This has sucked in Russians and her proxies, Africa Corps (formerly Wagner?).

The removal of French troops and ensuring a vacuum could prolong the conflicts. One curious observation is the overt promotion of strong men as the best alternative to democracy in this region. Who has not seen videos of Ibrahim Traore?  

We can continue listing the wars to forget our own here. No guns involved, but ours is socio-economic. Lots of Kenyans have internal conflicts; they lack economic means and are struggling with joblessness, hunger, and helplessness. Like other wars, they long for peace and tranquillity in their pockets.