Olympics and economics: Closer than we thought?

The Olympic Games are on, and Kenyans are relying on athletics to uplift the spirit of a country where bad news often dominates headlines.

But why do some countries get more medals than others? Is there a connection between the economic status of a country and the medals it wins? Does Kenya’s economic growth rate have to go up for us to get more medals? What do the top winners have in common?

High populations

Looking at the medal table for 2008 in Beijing and 2012 in London, it seems the same countries dominate the standings.

They have a couple of things in common. One, they are large countries with high populations. Using the law of large numbers, it logically follows that they have a higher chance of producing talented Olympians in whatever game. Though India and Indonesia have large populations, but are absent on the medal table.

Medal-rich nations have another common factor: they participate in more games. In Kenya, we focus on just a few events, like athletics. Other countries spread themselves out, increasing their chances of winning more medals. Why don’t we do the same? Why can’t we try judo, fencing or those other ‘minor’ games? A medal is a medal, after all.

The other medal driver seems to be economics. Big economies seem to do well in the Olympics, perhaps the reason India and Indonesia are missing. A back-of-the-envelope calculation seems to support economics as a key driver of Olympics performance.

The correlation between GDP growth rates in 2011, the year before the 2012 Olympics, and the number of medals won is positive.

For the top 20 countries, excluding North Korea, which has no data on GDP growth, the correlation is 0.25. For the top 10 countries, the correlation is higher at 0.43. While correlation does not mean causation, it can suggest it.

Big economies probably invest more in sports, right from school to university, easily finding the next generation of Olympians. Many Kenyans are in the US and other countries on sports scholarships. In the US, for example, you can take golf as a unit as an undergraduate. The same applies to other sports.

I think we have been talking about talent academies for too long. Investment in sports should not just be in school. Where do the top sportsmen and women who do not go to university or other institutions go? They should not be left to waste away.

In Kenya, investment in sports is also class conscious. Do you know any Olympian who grew up in Muthaiga or Karen? Maybe difficult sports like athletics attract the low socio-economic classes because of the endurance required.

But it seems that even the affluent do not invest enough in sports — we should be having more Tiger Woods or equivalent golfers in Kenya with our 365 days of sunshine.

How can we increase our medal haul and national pride?

We must start early, when kids are in nursery school. Ever noted the enthusiasm with which children play? Later, they relax because we do not reinforce sports in them, often portraying games as being for idlers.

One could ask where playfields for youngsters have gone. While we are happy to build apartments and highways, not much emphasis is put on sports facilities. Former President Moi build Kasarani, where I hear a golf course is in the offing, and Nyayo Stadium. He even tried to introduce new games like baseball (or rounders).

Crime drops

Sports should not be an afterthought. We are supposed to play throughout our lives; there are sports for each age group.

We should not get excited about medals during Olympics and the World Cup, and then slide into inactivity. Both last for a few weeks, but our lives are longer. I shall not talk about the Premier League and betting ....

How much money are counties putting into sports? Sports keep young minds busy and away from trouble. Can the police confirm that crime drops during the World Cup?

Sports gives us meaning and purpose, and spices up our lives. In the workplace, we become more productive because of less stress and better health.

Sportier nations are more productive economically, as represented by their level of growth. The sportiest schools also tend to have learners who perform better in exams and, by extension, later on in life. Let us celebrate our medalists by making sports a part of our lives, not just a punctuation.

The writer is senior lecturer, University of Nairobi.

[email protected]