Heated debate on Rift Valley vote as Raila seeks deal with Ruto

Few expected Opposition chief Raila Odinga’s overtures to Deputy President William Ruto to back his presidential bid in 2017 to be taken seriously.

Mr Ruto is firmly in the Jubilee camp and has stated unequivocally that he would support President Uhuru Kenyatta’s re-election bid in anticipation of receiving support from the Jubilee leader’s vast support base in Central Kenya.

However, Raila overtures may have been to exploit concerns in Ruto’s Rift Valley base that support from Central Kenya is not guaranteed. Only this month Kiambu governor William Kabogo drew the ire of Jubilee leaders when he stated that Ruto should not assume that support from Central Kenya is guaranteed.

Last week, National Assembly Deputy Minority Leader Jakoyo Midiwo said it was essential to bring the large Kalenjin voting block to the Opposition. He said Raila was making a bid to “bring the vote-rich region back to the fold” ahead of the 2017 poll, by pledging to back Ruto’s presidential bid in 2022.

Buoyed by his warm reception during a fundraiser at Ndanai Catholic Church in Sotik, Bomet County, on June 5, Raila said he was ready to hold talks with the DP over his intention to run for presidency in 2022.

Raila said he would like to win the support of the community which overwhelmingly supported his presidential bid in 2007 when he ran against incumbent Mwai Kibaki and lost.

The Coalition for Reforms and Democracy (CORD) leader said since it was unlikely that someone from the community would challenge Uhuru, the Jubilee flag bearer, the Kalenjin should support him in 2017 and he would reciprocate the gesture in 2022 by serving only one term then support Ruto’s presidential bid.

The former Prime Minister will no doubt be eyeing vast voting bloc in the Rift Valley — after March mass voter registration campaign the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) put the number as voters from the region at 3,757,776.

In the 2013 General Election, President Uhuru Kenyatta garnered 1,950,660 votes against Raila’s 707,481 in the region. Ultimately Jubilee’s Uhuru secured the presidency with 6,173,433 votes against Raila’s 5,340,546.

But in 2007 when the Orange Democratic Movement leader and Ruto were in the same political party, Raila garnered 1,056,934 of the Rift Valley’s 2,375,898 regional votes against Mwai Kibaki’s 449,011.

IEBC figures indicate that Rift Valley and Central’s total registered voters as of March this year stands at about six million, while Nyanza, Western and Coast have about five million.

Former Sotik MP Anthony Kimetto said despite the community’s strength in potential voters, Ruto should develop a contingency plan if he is convinced he will not be supported by Central Kenya.

“While we are sticking to our current friend, we should reach out to others too, including Raila and his community so that we can be assured of victory,” Kimetto added.

Bomet County ODM chairman Ronald Ng’eny said the Kalenjin community should be careful and study past voting trends.

“Raila supported retired President Kibaki with the hope that he would return the favour, but it was not to be. Former Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka had the same fate. What assurance do we have that Ruto will escape the same fate?” posed Ng’eny during the Ndanai church fundraiser.

Raila’s statement may, however, hurt his party whose top leaders may believe they are being overlooked in a power arrangement that locks them out.

However, ODM chairman John Mbadi, Wiper secretary general Hassan Omar and Ford Kenya’s Eseli Simiyu said CORD co-principals Raila, Kalonzo and Moses Wetang’ula were all engaging like-minded political players in crafting a formidable force to face President Kenyatta.

Mbadi dispelled fears that by reaching out to Ruto, Raila would destabilise the coalition’s unity, and that ODM was planning to break up CORD to form a new alliance to accommodate new players.

“Raila is upping his game and making himself more attractive ahead of the 2017 elections.

All the three co-principals are free to ask for support outside CORD, since we are yet to settle on a candidate,” said Mbadi.

These sentiments were echoed by Midiwo, who said the former Prime Minister was merely “asking Ruto to come back home”.

Midiwo said Raila had made the remarks against the backdrop of Kabogo’s statement over the Central region’s fledgling support.

Omar added that “politics is a game of possibilities” and Raila was merely trying to exploit available options for him.

“I don’t think it is a threat to the coalition, but part of the strategy to expand it,” he said.

The senator, however, he did not anticipate Ruto and Raila to forge an alliance on account of their deep-rooted differences.

“Ruto has nothing to gain since if he were to join Raila he would still play second fiddle, which is the same position he enjoys in the current arrangement,” Omar said.

But some Ruto allies dismissed the offer, terming it a plot to confuse Rift Valley voters.

National Assembly Deputy Speaker Joyce Laboso told Raila that Jubilee has its own lineup until 2032. Laboso, however, welcomed Raila’s support for Ruto in 2022.