Disputed ODM party poll puts Moses Kajwang' ahead

Candidates in the Homa Bay senatorial by-election have reacted angrily to an internal ODM poll that suggested its flag-bearer would win the seat by a landslide if elections were held today.

The poll commissioned by ODM claimed that the party's candidate Moses Kajwang' would garner 58 per cent of the vote against his closest challenger Phillip Okundi (Maendeleo Democratic Party) who polled 12 per cent.

Mr Kajwang' would sweep the board in nearly all the 40 wards, according to the survey released by the party's Director of Elections Junet Mohamed. The poll was conducted between January 15 and 17.

Monday, five rival candidates, Innocent Masara (Independent), Edwin Matete (Independent), Fred Rabongo (National Agenda Party), Hillary Alila (Independent) and Benard Otieno (National Vision Party) termed the survey as propaganda meant to mislead the voters.

The survey, which suggested 18 per cent of voters were undecided, polled Mr Rabongo (five per cent), Mr Alila (four per cent) and three per cent for Silas Jakakimba, who has since withdrawn from the racing citing threats to his life.

Mr Masara questioned the manner in which the research was conducted saying it was meant to undermine other candidates.

"It is very unfortunate that the body that did the survey is not recognised for doing research. I have scrutinised the results but there is no indication of where undecided voters and other candidates in the race fall," said Masara.

Mr Matete argued that the report is not credible because it was done by a party, which has a candidate and is therefore partisan.

"This report was done by a body I can compare with a judge who is given an opportunity to preside over a case in which he has been accused. This is propaganda, which they want to use to confuse voters ahead of the by-election," said Matete.

Rabongo argued that the report was motivated by malice to mislead the electorate that some of the candidates are losing popularity.

"I have also done my research, which indicates that I will win the election with 38 per cent while Kajwang' has 11 per cent but I have not gone to any media house to have it published. Let us not deceive the public," he said.

He argued that the report is false because ODM leader Raila Odinga should not have gone to Homa Bay to campaign if Kajwang' was popular.

Rabongo said such reports will make each of the candidates to come up with their own reports hence confusing the people.

Mr Alila and Mr Otieno also dismissed reports that the by-election is a two-horse race between Mr Okundi and Mr Kajwang'.

Alila told Homa Bay residents to dismiss such allegations, saying those peddling them would be surprised on polling day.

"Some candidates are campaigning in a unique manner where they reach voters directly. Our people will be surprised on election day when a candidate who is not being discussed in the media wins this seat," Alila said.

A sample size of 1,536 respondents was proportionately distributed across the eight constituencies and wards based on the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) register of March 2013.

The survey indicated that Kajwang' would top in all the eight constituencies of the county beating Okundi in his backyard of Rangwe and the neighbouring Karachuonyo, which is viewed as holding the swing vote.

It also put Kajwang' ahead of the pack in all the 40 wards with other candidates getting less than 15 per cent of the votes.

The survey suggested that Raila's endorsement influenced the choice of candidate the most, with more than 39 per cent of the respondents saying it swayed their preference.

A development-conscious person and experience and track record were other key factors. ODM also emerged as the most popular party, attracting support of over 86 per cent.

Day one of the survey coincided with the presence of Raila on the ground, a fact the interviewers had not anticipated.

The party, however, indicated that they were not able to determine the extent to which this influenced responses.

Age, clan, religion, integrity and education will not influence the voting patterns of the Homa Bay electorate, according to the survey, with most of them scoring below four per cent.

Other factors were political party and track record standing at 12 per cent each.

"The official campaigns started on January 19, 2015. The Party should therefore use this as a baseline. Another survey maybe necessary in about 10 days to one week before polling day for the party to gauge actual standing on the ground," the document advises.