What if Raila Odinga had contested in Homa Bay?

The unusual silence from supporters of Jubilee Government when former Prime Minister Raila Odinga’s name surfaced in the Homa Bay senatorial seat contest was deafening. It was, however, clear that the day Raila would have clinched the ODM certificate for the position is the day his political opponents would have ensured his down fall. Other scenarios would have also come with such a move by the CORD principal, and instead of consolidating his support, he would have lost big.

Raila’s getting into Senate would have meant Kalonzo Musyoka remains the only fellow CORD principal still languishing in the political cold, making him quite vulnerable to the allure of Jubilee offers, which, if he had accepted, would have seen the writing of CORD’s obituary. Kalonzo would have been blamed for failing to replace former and late Makueni Senator Mutula Kilonzo.

Some would have branded such a move political usury by Raila, thereby putting him on a collision path with the former Vice President’s supporters.

Homa Bay elders met Raila at his Bondo home to implore upon him to accept to run for the senatorial seat. At the same time, other ‘elders’ addressed the Press in Homa Bay, castigating the proposal. That left many wondering whether indeed the entourage in Bondo comprised genuine Homa Bay elders, and to whose behest they were serving.

 But of significance was a speech from the second group, which equated the late former Homa Bay Senator Otieno Kajwang’ to Raila’s son. Inheriting Kajwang’s wife (Homa Bay County) would have been a taboo that could have attracted catastrophic consequences since the (Luo) gods would not have been pleased. Such a move would have spelled doom for Raila’s political survival, coming in the wake of perceived rebellion from some leaders in South Nyanza, where Homa Bay is.

And was the IEBC going to be fair in a contest where Raila participated, the latter having antagonised the commission for “electoral bias” during last year’s General Election and consistently called for the sacking of commissioners? His candidature would have provided fodder to IEBC to put the last nail on his political coffin.

But even if the commission remained fair and Raila won, he would have replaced Ford-Kenya leader and Bungoma Senator Moses Wetang’ula as leader of Minority in the Senate, creating friction between them and rekindling memories of 1994 when he fought then Ford Kenya chairman Kijana Wamalwa over leadership of the party.

It was wise for Raila to abandon the quest to prolong his active political life, but he must now put his ODM house in order, and respond to his party’s pressing issues, like the Kajiado Central seat, which TNA is eyeing. Raila’s new party officials need his leadership to gel, as those calling the shots now have been branded ‘moles’. He also needs time rethink his party’s position for 2017.