Why Ababu exit has left Kenya’s biggest party severely weakened

Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), Kenya’s biggest political party by parliamentary membership, stands on shaky grounds following tremors caused by last week’s resignation of top officials.

The party, led by former Prime Minister Raila Odinga, has encountered similar turbulence in the past; when it was deserted en-mass by supporters in the vote-rich Rift Valley region. The party’s top-most leadership is now battling to contain a similar revolt in Western; another populous voting bloc.

Western Kenya comes second to Nyanza region in political importance for ODM. In the last general election, two of the four governors from the region – Sospeter Ojaamong (Busia) and Wycliffe Oparanya (Kakamega) – were elected on ODM tickets.

Addressing mourners in Kakamega County yesterday, Raila said a section of leaders was working hard to divide the country on tribal lines.

“We want to build a Kenya that is all inclusive and not just for particular people or a particular region,” he said.

Raila was responding to the tribal card that former ODM Secretary General Ababu Namwamba has been playing since his resignation that the Luhya have been sidelined in the party.

“Luhyas will not continue to play second fiddle. We can decide to change the leadership of this country and this can only happen with the firm decisions which one has to take,” Namwamba told his followers in Busia County on Friday.

New journey

But Raila has since put his former ally on notice, promising that things will not be the same again after his scheduled tour of the region starting July 18. “That is when we will talk politics,” he said, reacting to resignations of Namwamba and Vice Chairperson Paul Otuoma.

Last week, a section of leaders from the region, including former Lugari MP Cyrus Jirongo, accused Deputy President William Ruto of being behind the confusion among politicians in the region.

Speaking in Port Victoria after a meeting with Muslim faithful at Jamia Mosque on Friday, Namwamba promised to announce his next move in about two weeks.

Namwamba has gone ahead to say he has already secured a steady home for himself and his supporters.

“Be prepared, the place is already secured. We will soon announce it. It is a good home and very stable. I am tired of being given a position in which I have no powers. Join me as we start our journey afresh,” he said.

Though Raila’s allies have put on a brave face and dismissed the resignation of Namwamba and Otuoma as inconsequential, the Orange party seems to be hurting from deep down.

Similar experiences in the past have left the party politically wounded. The way the party has handled its elections, the nomination of candidates for various elective positions and the structures it created to run its activities have all elicited friction, confrontations and fist fights among members and leaders.

While exiting the party position, Namwamba said: “I cannot remain to be a general with a gun that has no bullets. It is time I am given bullets or the owner of the gun takes it away all together.”

On his part, Otuoma said party leaders from Western have been raising concerns on how the party is being run but those concerns have allegedly been personalised and turned into internal party wars.

“I do not want to be part of any party confusion, that is why I am resigning from my position,” said Otuoma.

The grievances of the two senior leaders mirror those of their earlier colleagues who quit the party and went ahead to chart competing political paths, including Deputy President William Ruto, Majority Leader Adan Duale, Tourism Cabinet Secretary Najib Balala and former Cabinet minister and ODM national chairman Henry Kosgey among many others.

Party stalwarts have insisted that the exits of Namwamba and Otuoma are inconsequential and will not affect the party’s strength in any way.

No politician in the party’s inner circle has summoned the courage to speak out on the dangers of fragmentation in the country’s biggest party with arguably the widest countrywide representation of 95 MPs in the National Assembly, 17 senators and 15 governors elected and/or nominated from seven of the eight former provinces.

The chest-thumping in the party is perhaps best captured by deputy leader and Kakamega Governor Wycliffe Oparanya. Unapologetic and shooting straight from the hips, Oparanya said those claiming to have left the party should be ignored.

“ODM is a huge party with following across the country, those disgruntled voices should be ignored. We will continue to back the CORD coalition and Raila in his quest to become President,” said Oparanya.

He added: “I urge our supporters, especially those from Western Kenya, to remain in ODM and support CORD by joining the coalition in large numbers.”

The same sentiments were expressed by other Orange party top leaders including ODM chairman John Mbadi, Kisumu Senator Prof Anyang’ Nyong’o and Deputy Minority Leader in the National Assembly Jakoyo Midiwo.

The party secretary of political affairs and Ugunja MP Opiyo Wandayi pointed that those who want to leave the party should do so freely and peacefully.

“ODM is bigger than an individual who is out to harm it. We will not allow any traitors to give us conditions. Those who want to quit should do it peacefully,” said Wandayi.

In their reaction to Namwamba and Otuoma’s exits, Mbadi and Midiwo said the move will not affect ODM in any way. Mbadi accused Namwamba of working with Jubilee to wreck the party from within.

Serious crisis

Though its leaders could perhaps be in denial, political pundits opine that ODM is under serious crisis that could shrink it unless it undergoes proper diagnosis and the party leader takes decisive action to salvage it from what they called “self-destruction”.

According to political analyst Barrack Muluka, there is need to institute proper internal democracy in ODM and ensure consultation and inclusiveness in decision making.

“There is need to ensure that decisions are ratified by the party structures for them to be binding to the members and to enable officials feel like they are part of the big family,” said Muluka.

Muluka claimed the crisis had been authored by Raila for making decisions on behalf of the party without consulting his officials.

“Even the good old Kanu, strong as it was, would call for National Executive Council meetings, parliamentary group meetings and annual delegates’ congress to ratify party decisions. That is what ODM lacks, the decisions are made unilaterally by one person and then passed on,” said Muluka.

But lawyer Martin Oloo says a section of ODM top leaders from Nyanza are part of the bigger problem in the party and blames them for frustrating “outsider” leaders.

“Mbadi, Nyong’o, Midiwo among others must take blame for Namwamba’s exit as well as troubles facing the Orange party,” said Oloo.

Oloo said that after fighting so hard for the party leader in 2013 and demonstrating loyalty to the party, one would not have expected Namwamba to complain about betrayal and backstabbing from the party.

Amukowa Anangwe, political science lecturer at the University of Dodoma in Tanzania said ODM could be headed for even more trouble following Namwamba and Otuoma’s exits.

“The coalition and ODM party ought to brace for further troubled days after the duo exit. This was just a tip of the iceberg,” argued Prof Anangwe. Oloo echoed the same sentiments.