Will UhuRuto weather raging ICC storm?

NAIROBI: There are many sides to the raging debate on the case against Deputy President William Ruto and former KASS FM presenter Joshua Arap Sang at the International Criminal Court.

The dominant sides, be it the political machinations to discredit the court process as regards Kenya or the Government’s knee-jerk initiative to take cue and lobby the World against a portion of the court’s decision to allow use of evidence recanted by hostile witnesses against the duo, are amplified by one key missing link.

That missing link (which we have heard of in whispers and whimpers from the Opposition side which, for reasons related to the impending 2017 battle and political correctness and so as not to infuriate “Jubilee communities”) is justice for the victims.

Let us elaborate before this section is drowned by noises from UhuRuto supporters who may argue this is akin to declaring anyone who stepped on the dock guilty of the alleged crimes.

We also must take cognisance of the fact that there are political diehards who have taken the position that the victims were collateral damage and their pain must take the back seat because the more urgent issue is power.

That is not to say that Mr Ruto and Mr Sang should be presumed guilty even before the court gives its own judgment, based on the analysis and weighing of evidence so far presented.

But today as we reflect on the raging debate, it may be helpful to try and fathom the political undercurrents first, in the ruling coalition, and secondly, within the Opposition.

For the Opposition, there may be a lurking hope that the Kalenjin-Kikuyu or Uhuru-Ruto alliance, peppered by the attendant factors that contributed to its ‘tyranny of numbers’, may be fractured by the ICC case.

You can see the hate for this in the way Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto have worked overtime, especially with the President keen to demonstrate to the Kalenjin that the taboo subject on who fixed Mr Ruto, should not be entertained.

That is why all of a sudden, we are being told it is Raila Odinga who took Mr Ruto and Mr Sang to The Hague.

In Mr Ruto’s case, he has worked hard to kill any form of political capital his opponents may be seeking to milk out of his case. This he did by declaring that in 2017 he will back Mr Kenyatta. In other words, he seems to openly suggest: if I am not running against your man then why not fight for me today, then come 2022 please put me on the political sling and catapult me to State House?

But as we have seen in the Rift Valley, fear is rising about where all this “Hague thing” will end up. Consider this revelation by Alfred Keter, the MP for Mosop. Somewhere along the way, MPs allied to Mr Ruto decided that they were going to topple Cabinet Secretary Anne Waiguru.

At that point, even the North Rift MP who later pretended he was picking a call when there was no incoming call (to dodge journalists’ questions) were all making noise there was no stopping until Madam CS was ‘fixed’.

Then, Kalenjin MPs pulled out, and this is where Mr Keter comes in. Forget his bad manners at the Gilgil Weighbridge. Last Friday, he revealed that Rift Valley MPs had been given one simple warning; pursue Ms Waiguru any further and we (The National Alliance team) would leave you to fight out at the ICC alone.

As things stand, Mr Ruto may not be running in 2017, which is a weird thing because he seems not to countenance anyone from the community running a race he is not in. But still, his political constituency couldn’t be fooled that on this to take his word to the bank. No, it is still early, and the direction the ICC case is taking is telling. In other words, you can’t take a politician’s word as final; otherwise Mr Odinga would not be with Kalonzo Musyoka today, or Mr Kenyatta with Mr Ruto.

In short, even for those who care little for the victims; there is something else to ponder; whether Mr Ruto and Mr Sang are found innocent or guilty, when the final decision comes, what will be left of Jubilee, whose foundation was formed by the ICC building blocks?

If Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto were convinced this was not the case, you would not be seeing the flurry of activity, some even bordering on comedy and self-destruct, being staged to send the signal that it is the Opposition that is to blame for the cases at The Hague and that all is well in Jubilee!

One thing is clear though; whatever the falsity or accuracy of claims about Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto; they were never the best of friends anyway and nothing can change that; not even the eagerness with which the defenders of Mr Ruto and Mr Sang have roped in comedians and clowns to go and stage their brand-made-in-Kenya politics in The Hague courtroom and other theatres that may be willing to take the free shows.