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From Vietnam, Afghanistan to Ukraine and Iran: Overconfidence is how wars are lost

Smoke rises from the site of an Israeli airstrike in Beirut’s southern suburbs on March 6, 2026. [AFP] 

Wars are rarely lost first on the battlefield. They are lost in leaders’ minds − when leaders misread what they and their adversaries can do, when their confidence substitutes for comprehension, and when the last war is mistaken for the next one.

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