Will Ruto's charm offensive in Western sway Raila's turf vote?

President William Ruto with leaders from Busia County during interdenominational prayers and thanksgiving ceremony at Busia Stadium on May 28, 2023. [Benjamin Sakwa, Standard]

Cumulatively, the four Western Kenya counties have 2,217,948 registered voters going by the latest IEBC count. In 2022, Bungoma and Busia stood in stark political contrast during the August general elections.

Bungoma gave Ruto the highest number of votes, 255906 against Raila's 145,280. Busia gave him the least votes, 48801 against Raila's 226042. In Kakamega, Ruto got 141166 against Raila's 357857.

If Ruto were to retain his votes in these counties while eating into Raila's numbers, 2027 would represent less of a hurdle for him.

Ruto has already cut a niche for himself as a shrewd operator who beat the State machinery to win the presidency in 2022 when the odds were heavily stacked against him.

Political Risk analyst Dismas Mokua says the President is simply doing his work as the country's Chief Executive Officer.

"In my view, President Ruto has maintained a hectic calendar and has visited most parts of Kenya. These visits are not limited to Western Kenya. He has visited the entire country. The visits are the hallmarks of participatory leadership where he gets to interact with elected leaders and citizens."

According to Mokua, Ruto uses these countrywide visits to keep citizens, partners and stakeholders posted on the Kenya Kwanza success and trajectory, and to get feedback from citizens.

Musalia Mudavadi, William Ruto, Moses Wetang'ula and Rigathi Gachagua after addressing a campaign rally at Kapkatet Grounds, Kericho County, ahead of last year's General Election. [File, Standard[

The president also promised to sort out the mess in the sugar industry in the region. "I was not joking when I said I will sort out the mess at Mumias. We have already invested Sh 5 billion but it went to waste. I will ask Parliament to write off the Sh 60 billion debt owed by sugar millers. I will avail Sh 250 million for this job and Sh3 billion to build markets in Bukura, Kakunga, Lubao, Harambee, Buhuru, Iguhu, Malinya and Butere".

Earlier in Busia, he had promised to give money to construct a dual carriageway from the Busia border to Korinda and will provide funds to decongest Busia and Malaba towns that have heavy truck traffic constricting the roads.

Kakamega is only one of 47 counties that Ruto has visited and pledged to give billions of shillings, yet the government is struggling financially, unable to meet its financial obligations. A month ago, Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi said it would take a minimum of three years for the economy to start showing signs of recovery.

Coupled with the fact that the Kenya Revenue Authority has consistently failed to meet targets, Ruto could find himself in a precarious position if things don't turn out as projected, and there are any number of things that could go wrong.

If Ruto fails to fulfil his myriad promises due to financial constraints, they could easily become an albatross around his neck in 2027. Already, there are grumbles that he has reneged on the array of colourful promises he gave to hustlers during last year's election campaigns.

The anticipated manna from Kenya Kwanza has failed to fall on hustlers as the poor economy and high cost of living put a squeeze on them every day.

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