What Mike Sonko's victory in Nairobi Jubilee primaries means for Kenyans

I do a lot of field work and in many occasions I have to meet the Mwananchi in his/her place of work and living. Prior to Jubilee nominations in Nairobi I visited virtually all the slums in Nairobi.

Some of the areas I interacted in what some would describe the economy of the real hustlers – hard cart pushers, maize roasters, vegetable sellers, matatu crew, the cheap brew vendors, the small kitchens in slums food dealers and so on.

It is though navigating in some of these areas and at times fear engulfs me. But I find the Wananchi quite interesting to talk to and they do tell you a lot about the economy and politics. So when I did post that I project Gideon Mbuvi Sonko will win in my Facebook wall I received condemnations from what one would term as largely middle class though some of them really appreciated it.

One just needs to peer into the data released recently by Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) to appreciate some of the economic challenges we are facing and indications on the Kenya’s population. It might not necessarily be perfect but it largely reflects what one sees on the ground. Majority of the people in Kenya today are joining the informal job market.

In an environment currently experiencing plenty of retrenchment many necessarily find themselves in the informal sector otherwise referred to as Jua Kali. Moreover there is a lot of potential in Kenya economy wise and I’m confident we shall overcome the challenges. But this not being a challenge that grew up one day it has slowly been cumulating. It is as a result of many issues which would take a large discourse to explain. But then the majority of the voters or those who religiously vote are found in that economic group.

These people identify themselves with the kind of popular politics of Sonko. Sonko is not just Sonko he isa phenomenon of immense proportions. He is actually an embodiment of class rebellion. I would want to go to the field to gauge what will happen after the dust settles a bit and after the two main coalitions fix their candidates especially now that NASA has declared its own flag bearer at the Presidency contest.

But expect a lot of fireworks especially now the ‘Sonko’ group of voters has shown their might. They will be looking for anything less than victory in the August poll to make Gideon Sonko the next Nairobi governor. It may sound scary to some in the middle class knowing some of Sonko antics in the past but the reality is this is a man to watch. He is not and will never be a pushover in a political contest. He represents a political class. He cuts across tribal voting lines in Nairobi. It simply tells that the class loves his social programmes whether they are properly economically grounded or not.

I asked many of the would-be voters especially in the informal jobs sector why the love Sonko. They were brunt that Sonko is the only one who cares for them. His projects under Sonko Rescue Team were very popular with the Wananchi. Would Sonko manage Nairobi well? Many told me that even some of the most qualified across the country have not done any better when given the counties to manage so they feel Sonko may pull around him competent people to help him.

So in a sense they feel they only need their man on top. I obviously talked to many office workers and big business people and they had their own observations and reservations in equal measure. Bottom-line is majority of the voters and many who live in informal settlements and many who work in informal sector overwhelmingly voted for Gideon Mbuvi Sonko.

Next steps? This should wake up the policy makers that there is indeed an economic challenge afflicting many people. The people are simply trying to find who feels them and who can solve their problems. Whether it works or not is immaterial at this stage. I’m neutral to this debate but if you have eyes you can clearly see urbanisation is also concomitant with slum dwelling in Kenya. There is the brighter side and the problematic housing side.

Yet still the rural-urban migration will intensify as parcels of land available for gainful farming in rural Kenya are becoming smaller and with climate change agriculture becoming more unpredictable. Yet the pull to urban centres is to an increasingly joblessness environment and the informal sector becomes inevitable problematic as it is in itself. This is where Sonko popularity finds its rightful space.

The man and woman on the ground feel and trust him. Popular politics will easily grow in strides judging from the economic paradigm.