Cabinet reshuffle served converged political interests, but can we decipher coded intention?

By Public Watchdog

Yes, President Kibaki agreed on a Cabinet reshuffle with Prime Minister Raila Odinga, in a political action that sent out coded intentions but which do not need a genius to decipher.

Why? When political interests or any other converge, then everything with regard to decision-making ¡ª largely informed by the need to advance or preserve such interests ¡ª becomes easy, notwithstanding the existence of any antagonism.

How? Interests and actions might differ in perspective, even if seen from the same lens.

It must be underscored here that such interests always and rarely make for a double-edged sword that cuts both ways, including slowing down opponents and augmenting or consolidating the counterforce.

The Public Watchdog avers that the changes effected in the Cabinet by both principals were informed by convergence of interests to deal with matters political and machinations aimed at ensuring consolidation and preservation of interests based on expediency of the hour.

Kibaki retirement

It must also be stated that such interests are not necessarily aimed at enhancing efficiency in the running of ministries and /or productivity.

What, then, can we decipher?

First, it is obvious that the political temperatures are rising again, with only a few months to the next General Election ¡ª whether or not they are held in December 2012 or March 2013.

In order to further illustrate the question of convergence of interests, it would be important to explain why they have with respect to the decision on the date of the next elections.

Why? The Prime Minister is seeking political power to succeed President Kibaki, who ¡ª come the next elections ¡ª retires and is constitutionally-barred from contesting again, after the end of his two terms of office.

Thus, given that power is overwhelming, anything that can extend the exercise of the reins of power and authority over national matters is welcome for Kibaki but clearly not for Raila.

It is with respect to these inherent conflicting interests that it would be near-impossible for the two Principals to agree on the question of the next election date.

True, there are at play other interests beyond the two, as seen with respect to a restlessness among the political class who will pull all stops to ensure political self-preservation and without regard as to consequences of elections and re-election risks.

Many of the current crop of legislators may never see the inside of Parliament again, evidenced by history of past elections where more than 60 per cent of legislators have not been re-elected in every General Election.

Secondly, returning to the recent Cabinet reshuffle, the only matter of convergence was to change, but not how to change and/or who fits which ministry.

One would have thought a more comprehensive change in the Cabinet, including dropping many of the current ministers from both sides of the political divide was imperative.

However, that is certainly not how the political game is played.

Competence and suitability matters little, so it seems, with the overriding reasons being consideration of political interests and/or consolidation of influence, machinations to disadvantage opponents¡¯ and/ or to win new political territory at the expense of the opponents in succession politics.

The interests are, therefore, varied and multiple in every respect with many invisible hands and interests at play on both sides of the political divide in the shared coalition arrangement.

The winning master strategists must, therefore, be capable of clearly discerning the way forward in a masked and treacherous political environment full of political and vested landmines.

Sunset moments

Thirdly, two considerations were clearly at play in the reshuffle: Management of the International Criminal Court and succession politics.

The discernible intention here was to raise the profile of perceived dependable allies, while getting rid of political baggage or lowering the profile of those whose support was seen to be in doubt or were seen to be playing with opposing teams.

It is in light of these factors that an independent-minded and experienced Mr Mutula Kilonzo was replaced by a political but rising green-horn, Mr Eugene Wamalwa, who joined the Cabinet in the Kibaki Administration¡¯s sunset moments.

The question on everyone¡¯s lips, however, is how he will fare.

The same can be said of Mr Moses Wetangula, who was relegated to the Trade ministry portfolio ¡ª from the influential Foreign Affairs ministry, which was handed to Prof Sam Ongeri.

In this political equation, the race for Western Kenya votes ¡ª especially the Bukusu ¡ª take centre-stage.

KAMATUSA

After Mr Najib Balala revealed his game plan too early, the axe finally struck. Indeed, he should be happy that he lasted that long in a ruthless political environment that is intolerant to critical theatrics.

The politics of Coast and Western Kenya aside, numbers and money were also at play here ¡ª who will harvest these votes and who will play smart in the political game?

Finally, succession politics is now taking a hue of regional and tribal grouping with only one aim ¡ª to acquire political power and share accruing wealth, not necessarily with the electorate but largely for personal self-preservation.

Yesterday, it was the GEMA (Gikuyu, Embu and Meru) world; today it will be the so-called KAMATUSA (Kalenjin, Maasai, Turkana and Samburu).

Who will it be tomorrow and where is Kenya in all these groupings? Only, permanent interests are at play, this being a matter of compelling public interest!

The author is an opinion leader who prefers to remain anonymous.

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