How Ruto's political miscalculations have created political monsters in Gachagua, Sifuna

DCP Leader Rigathi Gachagua during an interview with KTN at his Karen home on July 22, 2026. [Kanyiri Wahito, Standard]

President William Ruto may have succeeded in snatching power from his former deputy Rigathi Gachagua and Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna, but he has also inadvertently  created formidable political opponents that could deal a major blow to his 2027 re-election ambitions.

While engineering Gachagua’s impeachment, Ruto sought to consolidate power and neutralise dissent but the strategy ended up reshaping the country’s political landscape in what has turned out to be a political miscalculation.

Rather than fading into political obscurity, Gachagua reinvented himself as the face of resistance in the Mt Kenya region, creating a formidable challenge to the President's influence in one of his most crucial support bases.

Following his successful impeachment, Gachagua formed the Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP), which has gradually replaced Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA) dominance in the region.

His political appeal has remained potent, with the unintended consequence of his ouster strengthening him and not weakening him a move that led to a seismic loss to the UDA in the just-concluded Olkalou by-election that saw DCP scoop 87 per cent of the total votes cast against UDA’s 13 per cent.

The DCP party leader said while Ruto managed to hound him out of office, he did not succeed in removing him from people’s hearts while likening  UDA’s loss in Olkalou to the party’s final rites.

“UDA was born in Olkalou in Rurii Ward in 2021 after its first-ever MCA was elected defeating the Jubilee party; likewise, the death of the UDA party happened in Olkalou in the just concluded by-election,” he said.

He maintained that by-elections in the Mt Kenya region give the region its political direction, recounting the Kangema by-election in 2012 where the TNA party won and later formed the government.

“In Kiambaa Constituency, UDA trounced Jubilee Party a year before the 2022 General Election, and the party later formed government. The  Olkalou by-election is an indication that DCP will be in government next year,’ Gachagua said.

Other than Mt Kenya region, Gachagua has been making inroads in the Maa region, where he has received considerable support, with his party garnering an MCA seat in Narok Town with Douglas Masikonde defeating UDA’s Robert Kanyinke after garnering 6007 votes against 4479 votes in last year’s by-election.

The DCP party has also won various Member of County Assembly seats in Nairobi and the Western region.

Linda Mwananchi team led by Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna during a rally in Trans Nzoia County on July 25, 2026. [Linda Mwananchi, X]

Sifuna’s rapid rise is attributed to Ruto’s governance and strategic realignments such as co-opting ODM in a broad-based government. The president also appeared to take over control of the one-time mighty opposition party and went ahead to orchestrate the vocal MPs removal.

He at one point warned Sifuna that if he continued attacking him politically, he would convene the ODM founder members meeting to discipline and kick him out of the party.

Sifuna has emerged as the fastest-rising opposition contender ahead of the 2027 general election, currently polling at 15% nationally according to various opinion polls.

At the same time, developments within ODM have fueled perceptions that the State House is increasingly interested in influencing the internal affairs of its newfound political ally, such as removing Sifuna from the Secretary General of the ODM party and his removal as the deputy minority whip.

Suna East MP Junet Mohammed's confirmation that discussions on replacing Sifuna took place at State House reignited debate over the independence of political parties and Ruto’s involvement of the Senator’s woes.

According to Junet, tODM holds its meeting at State House since it's part of the broad-based government and should not be treated as an opposition party.

 “Nimesikia wengine jana wanasema ati siku hizi mikutano za ODM zinafanywa huko State House,” Sasa ulikuwa unataka tufanye mkutano wapi? ODM iko katika serikali ya broad-based. ODM sio ile ya zamani. This is a ruling party.”

 Analysts have cited the two parallel developments of Sifuna and Gachagua, saying they raise questions about whether the President's political strategy became counterproductive.

Political analyst Semeon Ogunda said Ruto may have wanted a certain outcome while engineering the two leaders’ political misfortunes, only to backfire and to create his biggest rivals.

“While sidelining Gachagua may have aimed to eliminate a rival, it instead created a rallying point for disaffected Mt. Kenya voters. Likewise, perceived involvement in ODM's internal leadership puts him right at the center of Sifuna’s woes and this has led to the sympathy card, especially from the supporters of the late Raila Odinga,’ Ogunda said.

He said as the country moves closer to next year’s polls, Ruto faces the challenge of managing the unintended consequences of these political calculations.

‘A resurgent Gachagua has emerged and has undoubtedly added new pressure points to President Ruto's political landscape,” he added.

According to Joseph Kagiri, governance and policy expert and Kieni-based politician, as a result of Sifuna’s woes, the Western regional dynamic has shifted towards Sifuna a move that has dealt Ruto a major blow as he has relied on Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi and National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetangula.

“Sifuna’s explosive homecoming rallies and direct engagement with wananchi have systematically weakened Ruto's regional allies, positioning Sifuna as the new political heavyweight of the region, while in Mt Kenya, Gachagua has ran away with it thanks to Ruto’s political miscalculations,’ he said.

He added, ‘Mt Kenya and Western region are key voting blocs that Ruto needs in his re-election game plan but his involvement in their woes complicates his political arithmetic,” he said.