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Four possible scenarios after Raila Odinga withdraws from presidential race

By Patel Okumu | October 10th 2017
President Uhuru Kenyatta and NASA presidential candidate Raila Odinga

The National Super Alliance (NASA) presidential candidate Raila Odinga's withdrawal from October 26 repeat election has thrown the country into a political tailspin.

"There will be no election if those who messed with the elections are still in office," Raila said. 

The question every Kenyan is now asking is, what next? Standard Digital sought views from several lawyers and these are the possible scenarios.

Scenario one

The Independent Electoral Boundaries Commission (IEBC) can go ahead and declare Uhuru Kenyatta as a sole candidate and thus declare Kenyatta elected unopposed after which he will be sworn in by the Chief Justice.

Scenario two

NASA or any other party opposing the IEBC decision to declare Uhuru winner can go to the Supreme Court and still insist on a fresh election after which the court will give its verdict.

Scenario three

The Supreme court can allow Ekuru Aukot to participate in the repeat election which means IEBC proceeds with the 26 October election plans. However, it is likely that NASA can go to court to still challenge the fresh election.

Scenario four

IEBC sticks to what the Supreme court ordered and proceeds with the October 26 repeat election. The dilemma will be whether it is still in public interest to conduct an expensive repeat election or just declare Kenyatta as President of the Republic of Kenya.

Uhuru Kenyatta responds 

Following Odinga's withdrawal, Kenyatta said Odinga has exercised his "democratic right" to withdraw from the repeat poll.  He added that IEBC will still proceed with the October 26 election. On September 1, 2017, the Supreme Court ruled that the August 8 Presidential election was not held in accordance with the Constitution and election laws. 

On on the weekend of October 7, Senate Majority leader Kipchumba Murkomen claimed Raila planned to drop out of the race before going to the UK, where he is expected to deliver a lecture at Chatham House.? Murkomen anchored his claims on the proposed election laws as well as court cases brought by (August 8) presidential candidate Aukot and Pokot South Member of Parliament David Pkosin, which he said had worked against Raila’s plan to occasion a political crisis so he could precipitate the formation of a transition or coalition government.

Orange Democratic Movement Director of Elections Junet Mohammed is on record to have said that participating in the election would only serve to legitimise Kenyatta’s possible win. He said if all the NASA demands were not met, there would be no reason to run in an election that “would be rigged”. 


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Kenyans react after Raila withdraws from presidential poll
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