Our prosperity lies in the elite colluding against the masses

The absence of elite collusion against ordinary Kenyans (or class politics) in the management of our political and economic life is a puzzle. Logic suggests that if they were to collude, our political and economic elites would stand to reap a much bigger benefit than they currently do.

Annual economic output in Kenya is about seven trillion shillings. If our elites – of all ethnicities – colluded to reward themselves with just 10 per cent of this amount, they would get Sh700 billion annually.

Assuming that they are a little smarter than door knobs, they could create immense fortunes with this amount. In addition, intra-elite collusion would allow them to make efficient use of resources, including labour. Right now, only about two million Kenyans are gainfully employed. Everyone else in the working age population hustles.

Now if we guaranteed our elites 10 per cent of the total annual economic output, and assuming that they are rational, they would perhaps come up with clever ways to increase the base amount. Ten per cent of 10 trillion is bigger than 10 per cent of seven trillion.

We could even ask them to step aside, and elect more goal-oriented public officials whose primary job would be to grow the pie – through rapid job creation, maintenance of peace and order, and sober management of the economy.

Does this sound like a crazy idea? Perhaps. But think about it, would it be worse than what we currently have? Most likely not.

We have a public service system based on graft and tribalism. Everything we do is mired in graft. The competition for access to deals is often ethnically tinged, a fact that generates incredible levels of social instability. This leads to two normatively undesirable outcomes. First, the manner in which our elites steal money is inefficient. Their efforts to hide the loot often distorts large swathes of the economy.

Second, our elites compete for access to graft (aka politics) in socially undesirable ways. Our politics is organised around ethnicity in ways that leave us socio-economically segregated. As a result, we do not trade with each other as much as we could, or allow for our people to move to places where they can make the best use of their time. This is a recipe for perpetual poverty and stunted development.

So what explains the lack of elite collusion in Kenyan politics? Watching the slow-motion train wreck that is the current election cycle, I am increasingly convinced that ethnicity is to blame. You see, for a long time I used to think that our leaders were not tribalists, that they use tribal politics instrumentally – as means to an end.

But lately I have become convinced that the reason they do not collude to efficiently manage the economy for their own benefit – as rationality would suggest – is because they are actually tribalists. Otherwise, why would anyone leave money on the table?

The writer is an assistant professor at Georgetown University. @kopalo