We might have no winners in August election; only losers

Whereas the tribal politicking and caucusing that characterizes every Kenyan election is still apparent in the 2017 election, this election is peculiar in its on right.

It is the first time that the two major political forces are in a race to out do each other in dishing political promises. An implementation of NASA or Jubilee’s political agenda could be more catastrophic and it would be better if they did nothing.

See, Kenya stands the way it is today, at least economically, because it has avoided particular pitfalls associated with other Africa countries. It has never had a government so intent on providing everything and wrecking the economy in the process.

But as they say, “vindu vichenjanga.” We will soon run out of things the incoming government be it Jubilee or NASA are not promising to offer for free, and this cannot be good.

Whereas in the heart of the political moment, it is indeed prudent to make promises, this should be done against a backdrop of what is feasible in the first place.

Let us start with Jubilee, it seems the only way of covering for failures over the last five years is to promise more. Promise more subsidies, for maize, floor fertilizer, seeds, Miraa basically promise to subsidize everything. Promise to build more, more stadiums, more rail, more roads and every other conceivable thing.

Public administration should have gone beyond celebrating outputs; we should be squarely in the realm of outcomes and impact by now. For all those subsidies and public investments, the Jubilee government should the value’s worth to the Kenyan people.

For example there should be something to show in improved health outcomes owing to huge investments in health care machinery and new hospitals.

Besides, the intent to increase public investments only serves to crowd out the private sector. An emasculated private sector does not bode well for the 1.3 million annual jobs that the Jubilee administration promises.

Jubilee’s promises more despite the country’s deficit clocking north of Sh524 billion and public debt hitting Sh3.77 trillion, almost double what it was in 2013 when the Jubilee government took power.
Managing budget deficits and public debt ought to be at the heart of Jubilee’s agenda. Pronouncements on this lines have been conspicuously absent from their agenda though.

On NASA’s part, acknowledging a problem exists is not in itself a problem. NASA has offered more problematic solutions for the myriad of problems in Kenya.

NASA endeavours to control the price of important commodities is worth of note. The desire to control the price of flour, rents will be disastrous. Just as Jubilee’s maize floor subsidy is disastrous.

In an economy like ours, price controls cannot be installed without inviting rationing. If price caps are placed on the price of floor, there will be no flour in the shelves and neither will there be new housing units in Nairobi if NASA does indeed decide to control house rents.

NASA’s other political pronouncements are more injurious, they beckon more trouble than they are worth.

Raila’s pronouncements on land could leave the country treading on a path previously trodden by Zimbabwe. Where arbitrary land appropriation by the government crippled the country’s agriculture and invited famine into the land.

The Kenyan election in 2013 is coming down to whose promises are more audacious. Not who shows an inkling of how promises made at the par of the political moment can be achieved.

This avalanche of political promises should worry the political neutral, not the tribal politics that accompany every election in the country. After all Kenyans have somewhat become inured to the tribal character of our politics, despite professing that it is not ideal.

Whatever happens in this election, who ever wins it, there can be no winners. It is a race to the bottom, where the country’s stability, forward momentum and very being are hedged on “pie in the sky political promises.”

Mr Njeru is Programmes Director, Eastern Africa Policy Centre, [email protected] Twitter: @AlexNdungu