Dagoretti lawmaker Simba Arati would be elected Kisii governor by an overwhelming majority if the elections were held today, a survey by Trends and Insights for Africa (Tifa) has shown.
The Tifa poll released today shows Arati, who is vying on an ODM ticket, would get more than two-thirds of the total vote.
UDA candidate Ezekiel Machogu would emerge a distant second with 11 per cent of the vote. Machogu’s figures are lower than the undecided vote, which stands at 15 per cent.
Former Kisii Senator Chris Obure (Jubilee) would be third with three per cent of the vote.
In the Kisii Senate race, Kitutu Chache MP Richard Onyonka (ODM), leads the pack at 27 per cent while Omingo Magara (Jubilee) trails at nine per cent. Curiously, half of the 516 residents who participated in the survey are undecided.
According to the opinion poll, in the Kisii Woman Representative race Wiper’s Donya Toto Doris Aburi is ahead at 32 per cent while Janet Ongera (ODM) comes second at 15 per cent.
In the neighbouring Nyamira county, Governor Amos Nyaribo (United Progressive Alliance) could be poised for re-election, enjoying 36 per cent support from among the 626 residents who participated in the Tifa poll. UDA’s Walter Nyambati, came second at 19 per cent, ODM’s Timothy Bosire is third with 11 per cent, with a fifth of Nyamira’s voters still undecided.
Senator Okong’o Omogeni (ODM) would also retain his seat, garnering 39 per cent of the vote with Jubilee’s Jerusha Momanyi beating ODM’s Emily Matoke Nyagarama to clinch the Women Representative position with 28 per cent.
Azimio la Umoja One Kenya presidential candidate Raila Odinga would trounce Deputy President William Ruto in the two Nyanza counties where they have wrestled for votes.
According to the Tifa poll, six in every 10 residents would vote Raila in to succeed President Uhuru Kenyatta.
In Nyamira, Raila enjoys 58 per cent support with Ruto trailing at 26 per cent. Some 17 per cent of the county’s voters are undecided.
Raila enjoys 61 per cent support in Kisii, with Ruto lagging at 20 per cent, only three percentage points higher than the figure of undecided voters.
In Trans Nzoia county, the governorship race seems to be favouring George Natembeya, who, according to the poll, would secure more than half of the total votes and more than double that of Kiminini MP Chris Wamalwa.
Even with the entire 17 per cent undecided vote in his basket, Wamalwa would still trail the former Rift Valley Regional Commissioner.
The senate race is currently a dead heat between former senator Henry Ndiema and Allan Chesang, both of whom are deadlocked at 24 per cent. Both have the task of convincing the 37 per cent of undecideds to swing in their favour.
Lillian Slyoi would win the Women Representative seat by more than a fifth of the vote, beating Susan Nakhumicha at 11 per cent.
Raila would also beat Ruto in Trans Nzoia where he enjoys the support of half the county’s residents, with Ruto bagging a third. Some 13 per cent of the 416 respondents said they were undecided.
UDA is the most popular at 24 per cent, with ODM at 23 per cent. The Democratic Action Party-Kenya is the third most popular at nine per cent. Azimio, at 44 per cent, is more popular than the Kenya Kwanza Alliance in Trans Nzoia.
The Murang’a governorship race could also witness another routing, with Senator Irungu Kang’ata (UDA) currently enjoying the support of two-thirds of the county’s voters, beating Jubilee’s Jamleck Kamau whose support is at 13 per cent, seven percentage points less than that of undecideds.
Joe Nyutu (UDA) would beat former senator Kembi Gitura (Jubilee) with 42 per cent against nine per cent. Betty Maina (UDA), at 37 per cent, would win the Woman Representative seat against Waithira Kibinda’s (Jubilee) 19 per cent.
Ruto has a sizeable lead against Raila in the county where 6 out of 10 of the 407 respondents support him. At 18 per cent, Raila trails Ruto by 44 per cent, with 16 per cent of the voters yet to decide.
Former Governor Godana Doyo (Independent) is leading the race to succeed Isiolo governor Mohamed Kuti. At 45, per cent, 11 points separate him from Abdi Guyo (Jubilee), his closest competitor. Fatuma Dullo (Jubilee), with 47 per cent support, seems poised to retain the Senate seat. She beats her closest rival Nuh Ibrahim (Independent) whose support is at 11 per cent.
Jubilee’s Rehema Jaldesa (Independent) could also be making a comeback as the Women Representative, enjoying 36 per cent support from the 435 respondents who participated in the poll. Mumina Bonaya (Jubilee) is second with 29 per cent.
Despite his UDA party being more popular than ODM in Isiolo, Ruto, at 42 per cent, trails Raila by eight points.