To stagger polls or not? Debate rages on format

President William Ruto and former Prime Minister Raila Odinga during the second day of the third National Executive Retreat at the KCB Leadership Centre in Kajiado County. [FILE/Standard] In a televised interview on Sunday, former Prime Minister Raila Odinga proposed that Kenya's elections be staggered to facilitate easier voting. Raila argued that holding a general election for six positions was cumbersome, a case made previously by various stakeholders, including the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC). Every five years, Kenyans vote for the president, governors, senators, members of the National and County Assemblies and women representatives in six different ballot papers. Changing this format would require a referendum as it alters the term of office of elected members. Since the first general election under the current Constitution in 2013, there have been suggestions to split the national and county-level elections due to the logistical nightmare involved. General elections are time and energy-consuming, too. Polling officers across the country's over 40,000 polling stations often have to work long hours conducting the elections, tallying votes and eventually lining up to deliver results to respective constituency tallying centres. "The bureaucracy and work the IEBC undertakes is too much," said Mulle Musau, an elections and ethnic consultant, who said the current format was problematic. "Elections are conducted by farmers and teachers, who, within a short period of training, are expected to conduct elections." In 2019, IEBC, then led by the late Wafula Chebukati, made this point when they proposed that county elections precede national polls by a year. Its position was also motivated by the assertion that having county elections (governors, senators and MCAs) first would prevent a scramble by politicians to vie within the party from which the president is elected and make the electoral process less divisive. Multiple stakeholders opposed the proposal, citing cost-related reasons. Kenya's elections are among the priciest in the world (Sh44 billion in 2022), a situation caused as much by logistical factors as it is by mistrust in the electoral commission, which sees the country procure electoral materials abroad. "This proposal was brought when we were drafting the Constitution in 2010 with the argument that five years was too long for wananchi to do a validation of their servants and change them," said Bobby Mkangi, a constitutional lawyer. "But it was defeated because of the expenses, not just because of logistics, but the number of polling stations in question." Mkangi questioned whether Kenya could afford holding "general elections every two, or two-and-a-half years" and argued that building trust in the commission would lead to cheaper elections. "Sadly, our primary focus is on security and not efficiency like it is in mature democracies," said Mkangi. But Musau, who agreed that holding separate polls would drive costs higher, countered by arguing that less efficient elections eventually cost the nation more, as has been the case with repeated incidents of post-election skirmishes. "The cost factor would be taken care of by the efficiency and a more transparent process," said Musau. Besides easing the burden off the IEBC, there is the argument that staggered polls would work to keep the ruling government in check by acting as a referendum on what Kenyans think about its policies. "Kenyans can deny them a majority in the county assemblies, and you will see more leaders working to deliver for the citizenry," said Musau. More mature democracies, such as the United States, from which Kenya borrows its constitutional make-up, have staggered polls that have often offered a gauge into the popularity of the ruling party. The control of the Senate and Congress occasionally changes hands during mid-term polls held every two years. Japan, too, holds staggered elections. In its recent polls, the ruling coalition lost control of the country's upper house, amid growing frustration at Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba over rising prices and the threat of US tariffs. President William Ruto is overly unpopular among Kenya's youth over issues that range from corruption to police brutality and accountability for crimes committed by law enforcement agencies. Lawmakers from Dr Ruto's United Democratic Alliance face the threat of recall, a process that is nearly impossible to achieve. Mid-term polls could, perhaps, have offered the Head of State a reality check in as far as his waning popularity goes. The President could well face a mini-general election if former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua persuades his allies from the Mount Kenya region to resign as MPs, a highly unlikely feat. A more realistic test awaits in certain by-elections, like Mbeere North, which could soon take place with the reconstitution of the IEBC. "When we rejected the proposal to stagger elections, we looked at the reality of Africa, where power is a magnet. Look at what happened when Ruto was elected into office; many MPs jumped ship. Presidential elections would likely determine how other elections go," said Mkangi. The constitutional lawyer also pointed out the heightened tension that having frequent elections would cause in a country that is perennially in an electioneering mood despite its five-year cycle. "Things may be working in six constituencies and not working in one. Why would you want to subject the six to a national process when the issue is more localised? I would propose to make it easier for Kenyans to recall their MPs. In that way, that process is localised to where constituents feel aggrieved," said Mkangi. Musau said splitting the polls would achieve the constitutional requirements of having a simplified election. He made the case for having the IEBC itself have a membership with overlapping terms that would prevent a total vacancy in the commission.

To stagger polls or not? Debate rages on format

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