Fluid political pacts a bedrock of confusion

President William Ruto and former Prime Minister Raila Odinga after AUC election in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, on February 15, 2025. [File, Standard] The lines are blurred and the political landscape is filled with fireworks as friends fire at colleagues from enemy lines. Compatriots have changed jerseys, further confusing fans who can no longer tell who is playing for which team. Welcome to the complex game where Kenya's opposition wears different shades, making them indistinguishable from government apologists and vice versa. In organised societies, the opposition plays oversight roles to the Executive by providing the checks and balances. But not in Kenya. Although the High Court pronounced itself that Azimio Coalition party is the majority in the National Assembly, its minority leaders had already crossed over to the Kenya Kwanza side, presenting themselves as the front-line defenders of government policies. Azimio, made up of 13 political parties, was destined to be the face of the Opposition after they failed to clinch the presidency. Under Raila Odinga, the party was supposed to provide alternative leadership. But the coalition is now confused as tries to play conflicting roles of governance and oversight. Railaps party ODM donated some of its top officials to serve in government. The original Azimio Coalition party is no more as some parties such as the Narc Kenya have exited and rebranded to Peoples Liberation Party. The party leader Martha Karua was Raila's running mate in 2022. A splinter of Jubilee Party is in Azimio while the other is on the government's side where Sabina Chege is the Deputy Minority Whip in the National Assembly who is sympathetic to the majority side. Jubilee Secretary General Jeremiah Kioni, and MPs Mark Mwenje (Emabakasi) and Amos Mwago (Starehe) have remained on the opposition side. Azimio Secretary General Junet Mohamed is the Minority Leader in the National Assembly and has recently been the biggest government defender even as he sought to occupy the majority seat. ODM is experiencing internal strife with two factions, one side led by Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga and Mohamed becoming outspoken government mouthpieces. On the other hand, Secretary General Edwin Sifuna and acting party leader Anyang' Nyong'o as well as Siaya Governor, James Orengo, have been hitting out at President Ruto's administration over its failures. As the ODM struggles with its internal issues, it is holding on to one corner of the Azimio while Kalonzo Musyoka, another Azimio co-principal, has declared himself as the people's loyal opposition leader. This is a tittle he crafted for himself after Ruto-Raila rapprochement to probably send a message that unlike his peers in the coalition, only him could be trusted. In the Kenya Kwanza administration, MPS and Senators have assumed the role of the opposition especially after the impeachment of Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua. They are loudly asking the National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang'ula to respect the court decision and declare Azimio as the majority party. The trend continues into the Cabinet where Public Service and Human Capital Development Cabinet Secretary Justin Muturi has been hitting at the government from within, blaming the abduction and killing of government critics squarely on Ruto's shoulders. There is another section of Ruto's loyalists who, despite their spirited defense of Ruto's administration, have since gone quiet and are no longer present at the President's functions. These include Kiharu MP Ndindi Nyoro. Makueni Senator Daniel Maanzo says lack of political principles was to blame for the continued shifting of goalposts, and that the role of the Opposition had been left to the ordinary Kenyans and his party boss Kalonzo. "Raila decided to sanitise the President after the Gen Z onslaught and this changed the whole meaning in the Opposition as his ODM party had the majority. The implication of this means that some of us who are anti-government are fewer and we may not be in a position to oppose any government Motion, but that doesn't mean that our voice will wither." Political commentator Prof Peter Kagwanja is convinced the Opposition lost its mojo after the so-called broad-based government, explaining the term replaced the bottom-up agenda by the President. "The shifting of political alliances makes the High Court ruling on the majority coalition a revolution without revolutionaries; the result of such a mongrel form of Opposition and government is lack of accountability in government. This encourages people to do bad since if there is no punishment for doing bad and if doing good is punished, people will strive to do bad. This is where it pays to be corrupt," he argues. Party for Democratic Reforms leader James Mwangi says politicians were only thinking about their survival. "Current political tectonics are attributed by instinct to survive post the current administration and opposition formations. The political realignments are geared towards creating winning coalitions. Politicians are creating a political climate that will justify their moves in the eyes of the masses. The culture of creating political formations for the sake of power is not ending soon and that is the tragedy that has contaminated our democratic progress."

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