Race to the bottom of the pyramid continues

Kap Kirwok

What does 2010 and beyond portend for Kenya? Will 2010 herald the beginning of a decade of peace, prosperity and democratic maturity? Or, will it be the Lost Decade as the 1990s; or the Decade of the Squandered Opportunity, as this closing decade has come to be seen? Or worse, will it be, as some global warming doomsayers predict, the Last Decade before environmental Armageddon?

Predicting the future is dicey business. Even the best brains sometimes get it wrong. In 1932, Albert Einstein, perhaps the greatest scientist of the last century, said: "There is not the slightest indication that nuclear energy will ever be obtainable." In less than 20 years later, the first commercial nuclear power plant was operating. Today, there are at least 436 commercial nuclear power reactors operating in 30 countries – according to International Atomic Energy Agency.

In our age, the nerdy Bill Gates said, "640K ought to be enough for any one". He was talking about the future computing needs of individuals (although some say it was a tongue-in-cheek way of talking about money). Today, a top-of-the-line smart phone has at least ten thousand times more computing capacity.

So, no, we will not make any predictions of specific events – only of general trends.

As far as trends go, there are many – some mega, some micro – that will continue to shape Kenya in 2010 and beyond. Because of space constraints, we can only skim the surface of three of these.

The first of these trends is what we might call the ‘race to the bottom of the economic pyramid’. A race to the bottom of the pyramid is to be differentiated from the technical term ‘race to the bottom’ often associated in economics with competitive activities that result in negative outcomes.

The notion that the poor — the billions of small consumers at the bottom of the economic pyramid — can be a source of profits is of relatively recent vintage. It gained widespread recognition after the publication in 2004 of the book The Fortune at the Bottom of the Pyramid: Eradicating Poverty through Profits by CK Prahalad, a professor of Corporate Strategy at the University of Michigan.

As firms globally have discovered the tantalising prospect of tapping into the huge market at the bottom of the economic pyramid, there has been a rush to develop services and products tailor-made for this segment. This can partly be seen in a trend towards micro-packaging and miniaturisation of the unit of sale. The idea is to access the smallest wallet. And what an idea. It is growing at explosive pace around the world. Kenya will witness the intensification of this trend in 2010.

One of the driving forces and enablers of this trend is technology. The convergence of information, communication and computing technology has made possible the development and delivery of innovative content packaged in portable hand-held smart devises.

In Kenya, the most visible evidence of this trend is the now ubiquitous mobile telephone with its multiple uses. After successfully breaking into the money transfer business, the next frontier for mobile telephony might be in the education and heath sectors. With a little imagination, there is no reason why education content cannot be accessed or delivered via a smart phone in real-time. Look out for a trend towards M-Learning in 2010 and beyond.

Likewise, the year 2010 and beyond should see a trend towards M-Health. From basic medical consultations, to public health education, to pandemic management, the possibilities for M-Health are limitless.

The trend towards greater democratisation of information and communication will continue in 2010 and beyond, empowering millions of ordinary Kenyans. This could, incidentally, provide impetus to another welcome trend: the inversion of the concept of the Kenyan Diaspora. If the 1970s and 1980s were the Decades of Return for Kenyan professionals from the Diaspora, the 1990s and the 2000s were decades of return of a different kind: Diaspora remittances. This trend will pick up in 2010 as the world economy recovers from the Great Recession of 2008/2009.

The writer, [email protected], is the Managing Consultant for SBP Consult (strategybeyondprofit.com).