Loss casts shadow over DPM Mudavadi

By Francis Ontomwa

United Democratic Front (UDF) presidential candidate, Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi could be facing tough times ahead after he lost a crucial civic by-election to his former party, ODM which he has since dismissed as “a shell.”

UDF failure to capture the Bukura ward civic seat in  his Kakamega County backyard, despite camping there for days, has jolted his plans  to consolidate the Luhya  into a single voting bloc ahead of the  General Elections.

Analysts now say UDF may have lost the seat after its strategists assumed it had kicked ODM out of the region. They may also have assumed that Luhyas were firmly behind Mr Mudavadi not knowing ODM still has firm structures in many parts of the province.

They say the outcome of the civic by-election could be a pointer to the fact that many in this community still have faith in ODM, the party he quit following alleged differences with his long-time friend- Prime Minister Raila Odinga.

They say UDF may have also settled on an unpopular candidate during the nominations or could not just match the ODM campaign tactics.

“We blame it on Mudavadi’s close advisers. They made him thump his chest that ODM is finished. They made a lot of assumptions,” says Jacob Ndinya, a UDF supporter.

The outcome has also re-defined the supremacy wars between Mr Mudavadi and Mr Odinga in Western counties as it emerged that the UDF team has called for a retreat to lay new campaign strategies following the embarrassing loss.

Pharmacist Reuben Nyangweso of ODM floored two other candidates in the contest, Walter Andati of UDF and Faith Manya of Maendeleo Democratic party.

Mr Nyangweso garnered 1850 votes to trounce his closest challenger Andati who managed 1195 votes while Ms Manya managed a paltry 30 votes out of the 3153 cast in the civic election.

The Prime Minister quickly issued a statement congratulating Mr Nyangweso.

“The people have spoken and we must respect their verdict,” said Mr Odinga.

Some observers who spoke to The County Weekly said the Monday civic polls should serve as a wake up call for Mudavadi who has held a series of political rallies in Kakamega County in the past few months.

The by election that was billed to be a test run for ODM and UDF popularity contest in Kakamega, the bedrock of Western politics is an indication that UDF on whose ticket Mr Mudavadi hopes to contest the presidency in 2013 has a lot more to do on the ground in the lead up to the polls.

The political significance attached on the seat, albeit “small” was underlined by the presence of the Sabatia MP to campaign for UDF candidate, while the Prime Minister dispatched the ODM reloaded team led by Budalangi MP Ababu Nawamba to seek support for Nyangweso.

“For a moment, both parties seemed to have given all the attention to this seat going by the explosive campaign that was witnessed, a clear indicator that they had an axe to grind” says Political analyst Okoit Lok Etyang’.

The campaigns revolved around the suitability of the PM and his deputy as presidential candidates and clanism rather than issues and political ideologies, an indication of what Kenyans would most likely be treated to in the coming elections.

It remains to be seen whether Mr Nyangweso who unsuccessfully contested for the Lurambi parliamentary seat in 1997 and 2007 won because of the name he built in his two attempts at politics or the party popularity.

ODM is keen to capitalise on the victory in an attempt to regain the lost glory in the region since the departure of Mr Mudavadi in February.

“Mr Mudavadi has always referred to ODM as a mere shell, he campaigned for his candidate but he still lost. He should be told that he has now become irrelevant in the politics of this country after leaving ODM,” says Kakamega County ODM secretary Martin Andati.

The game seems to have been changed by the outcome. The two political parties will now have to change tact in order to ensure that they either up their popularity or maintain the numbers.

Political Science scholar and former Cabinet Minister, Amukowa Anangwe says Mr Mudavadi’s failure to capture the seat speaks volumes.

“UDF should realise that   getting Western Kenya from ODM is not an easy thing. It would take him time to penetrate the region.  I would advise Mr Mudavadi to mend fences with the most popular party if he is to remain relevant” says   Prof Anangwe.

He adds, “Some things happen to keep you alert and make you know where you are. The by election is a reminder that Western Province is a divided house and it is high time Mudavadi knew this.”

For ODM, it is a landmark outcome that could be used as yardstick to sell Prime Minister Raila Odinga since it has confirmed that it still commands support in Kakamega.

The UDF camp has however downplayed the loss, saying it was not the true reflection of the political situation on the ground.

One of Mr Mudavadi’s top allies- Shinyalu MP Justus Kizito claimed the election was not free and fair.

 “We were on the ground and we did our homework right. Vote buying by ODM people was rampant. It is disturbing that IEBC officials failed to act decisively,” the MP claims.

He adds, “It is unrealistic to view the battle as a case of Mr Mudavadi losing the seat to the PM. Against such backdrop, Mudavadi is still very relevant and his bid has not been jolted.”

For anyalyst Etyang’, the fight for Bukura was a Raila-Mudavadi contest and one of them has lost. It shows there is serious work to be done in future

“Scales have fallen from the eyes of the electorate and they are not going to vote for some candidates because they have blessing of so and so. It has now become their business to identify who they want,” he adds.

Planning Minister Wycliffe Oparanya who pitched camp at the ward praised the winner and affirmed that the victory was a pointer of better things to come for the ODM in the next General Elections.

“The victory is strong message that we are not push overs but still a very strong party in Western and one that will form the next Government” said Mr Oparanya upon Nyangweso’s declaration as winner.

The Bukura ward seat was left vacant after the death of the late councilor Evans Ashibikha.