Voters must consider character and competence for all politicians

Kamotho Waiganjo

It is not surprising that the soft issue most talked about in the just released census is the comparative populations of ethnic groups.

Kenyan politics has traditionally involved marshalling of ethnic passions either for "one of our own" or against "them" particularly when the prize is the presidency. A study of the elections between 1992 and 2007 shows a direct correlation between the ethnic identity of presidential candidates and their electoral fortunes. Even the absence of a strong ethnic menu in the "reform elections" of 2002 was more a result of the two top candidates belonging to one ethnic group than the birth of a post ethnic Kenyan voter.

With the release of the fresh census data, a lot of midnight oil is already being burnt as political strategists determine how best to align their 2012 hopes with the realities disclosed by the census. Unfortunately for the strategists, the terrain has drastically changed, courtesy of the new Constitution. The requirement of a 50 per cent plus one threshold means that only a combination of more than two ethnic groups can deliver the presidency if the considerations are solely ethnic. However, unlike the past, it is going to be difficult to marshal more than two ethnic groups on the basis of offers to their tribal chiefs. This modus operandi has been dealt a cruel hand by the diminished powers of the president. At best, the most that a presidential candidate can guarantee is the vice presidency and even that comes at a great political cost.

Any choice of a vice presidential candidate necessarily alienates those that have been left out. Traditional offers of Cabinet positions and lush parastatal jobs are no longer tenable since all these now require parliamentary approval.

It is also not yet clear how the rise of the counties, which are largely defined around ethnic groups, will tame passions for ethnic positioning as they increasingly become the primary venue for political and economic expression. One possibility is the reduced drive to be key players at the national level by ethnic groups. Inter county competition and related conflicts may also demand a statesman (or woman) who citizens can trust to mediate between their competing interests. That candidature will be defined more by values and character than ethnic identity.

All this is probably some while away. In the immediate future, ethnic considerations and existing branding will count for a lot in determining political fortunes. In the short time between now and 2012, it is going to be difficult, though not impossible, to create a fresh brand that energises Kenyans away from the existing template.

But even those that desire to get the prize on the basis of existing brands must change their strategy. They must seek coalitions of interests and incorporate values as the driving force in their quest for office. The challenge is to the Kenyan voter. I know that ethnicity will play a part in your considerations. But I pray that the larger consideration for all political office, county and national, will be character, credibility, and competence. Over to you.

The writer is an advocate of the High Court