Quest to inherit Raila Odinga's bedrock hots up

As Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) leader Raila Odinga begins to retrace his steps in opposition, a silent succession battle is simmering in his Nyanza backyard, threatening to challenge his decades-old grip on the region's politics.

A group of politicians from his Nyanza and Western strongholds seems to be preparing to challenge his dominance and take over the mantle of leadership.

At 77, Raila's political fortunes could be gradually dwindling and some of his allies want him to start grooming a successor. Some believe his election loss in August gave the region the green-light to begin looking for an alternative voice.

In the last couple of weeks, political jostling has dominated the region as some politicians begin to take advantage of his election loss and the uncertainties surrounding his political future to craft their own paths.

Although his supporters and allies believe he will continue to have influence in the region's politics for several years, critics believe he is committing a leadership blunder by failing to groom a successor.

And the list of critics openly challenging his style of leadership in the region seems to be growing.

The Sunday Standard has established that some leaders in his ODM camp are pushing to succeed him and are hoping for his blessings.

Those trying to expand their influence in the region include a host of leaders who severed ties with Raila to back President William Ruto.

The list includes former Migori Governor Okoth Obado, Ugenya MP David Ochieng, ICT Cabinet Secretary nominee Eliud Owalo, former Lake Basin Development Authority chairman Odoyo Owidi and former Nairobi Governor Evans Kidero.

Although some of them downplay their own ambitions to expand their spheres of influence and claim they are only keen to bring development to the region through their association with the current regime, they admit that Nyanza politics should change.

Obado told The Sunday Standard that time is ripe for the region to take a new political direction. He said Nyanza needs a kingpin who can help them develop.

"We need somebody who will show our people how to feed themselves so that they don't die of hunger," Obado said. Obado is among leaders who have come out to openly question Raila's style of politics and is hoping to expand his own influence.

Another leader who is also hoping to expand his influence in the region is Ugenya MP David Ochieng through his Movement for Growth and Democracy (MDG) party.

Ochieng is keen to use the party to challenge Raila's ODM's dominance in the region. He has aligned himself with the ruling Kenya Kwanza regime but is hoping to strengthen the influence of his own party.

And although he claims his ambition is not to be a kingpin, observers believe his goal of controlling Nyanza may turn him into a kingpin should his MDG party achieve its goals.

Ochieng said his party was keen on growing and controlling all the constituencies in Nyanza region. He said the person who manages to solve the region's economic problems would control its politics.

"We seek to grow as a party. In future, we will seek to control all the constituencies in Nyanza. This is the future of Luo politics," said Ochieng.

It remains to be seen how long it will take for his goal to materialise given the popularity Raila's ODM still enjoys in the region.

And then there is Evans Kidero. In a recent interview, the former Nairobi governor downplayed his political ambitions.

However, Kidero is among leaders who have come out to openly challenge Raila's ODM party. His allies say he is also having bigger ambitions for Nyanza.

President Ruto's recent tour of Homa Bay County sparked Raila succession talks. Leaders from Luo Nyanza, who accompanied Ruto, included Owalo, Ugenya MP David Ochieng', and Lake Basin Development Authority (LBDA) managing director Raymond Omollo.

Others were former MPs Silvance Osele (Kabondo Kasipul), Martin Ogindo (Rangwe), Dalmas Otieno (Rongo), Jared Kopiyo (Awendo), Nicholas Gumbo (Rarieda), Ken Obura (Kisumu Central), former Kisumu Senator Fred Outa and former LBDA chairman Odoyo Owidi.

Owidi said the process of getting another Luo Nyanza kingpin is already in progress.

Owidi said it would take the community one year to get another political leader to lead Nyanza.

He believes the leader is not going to be nurtured but will emerge automatically. "The next political leader for the Luo community will be known in about one year. There is a common saying that leadership is not given to anybody but it is taken. The leader will emerge based on what he or she says and what they do for the people," Owidi said.

Owidi, who vied for the Kasipul parliamentary seat, has been one of allies of Raila.

But he argues that the ODM leader should now exit political stage and allow young leaders to take over.

"The community has stood with Raila for long and we respect him for dedicating his time to lead the community politics. However, his continued being in politics is tantamount to a vehicle that stands on the highway to prosperity," Owidi said.

Some leaders from Nyanza region whose attempts to make political comebacks flopped in August but are keen to revive the dream to challenge the status quo are also keen to challenge Raila's party through their parties.

The parties include Green Congress of Kenya (GCK) formed by former Rangwe MP Martin Ogindo and the United Green Movement (UGM) formed by former Ndhiwa MP Agustino Neto.

Ogindo said Raila should now step aside from political stewardship of Luos and allow the community to think on how to forge a new political path.

Ogindo said the community had suffered political alienation which had impeded socio-economic development.

"The Luo community has been suffocated politically in the sense that there is no multi-party democracy. Raila needs to step aside from the community's political stewardship to allow it think of how to take a new political path," Ogindo said.

He, however, thanked Raila for championing multiparty democracy and devolution in Kenya.

Neto said his objective was to promote UGM in the area but he is not bothered by what Raila does.

"I am bothered by what happens in ODM. Even if Raila vies for presidency in 2027, it will be an ODM issue. We are busy building UGM," Neto said.

Raila's allies, however, have dismissed the calls for a change in Nyanza politics and claims it is uncalled for.

Suna West MP Peter Masara said a kingpin would emerge naturally without being chosen by the people.

He said before that, Raila would remain the Luo kingpin and he does not have to mentor anyone to take over from him. "When the right time comes, a kingpin will emerge. The future of the Luo politics is bright," Masara said.

National Assembly minority leader and Ugunja MP Opiyo Wandayi said any talks of Raila succession was uncalled for and misplaced.

Harold Odhiambo, Olivia Odhiambo, Anne Atieno and James Omoro