Why Trump's fossil fuel blitz heralds a dark era in carbon reduction

US President Donald Trump speaks to journalists about TikTok as he signs executive orders in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, DC, on January 20, 2025.[AFP] Donald Trump has wasted no time in declaring a national "energy emergency," paving the way for new fossil fuel drilling projects. He also outlined his plan to overturn key climate policies enacted under the previous administration. His agenda includes rolling back emissions standards and halting offshore wind leasing. He revoked a freeze on liquefied natural gas (LNG) export approvals and reopened vast tracts of federal land for drilling. Observers say these moves could accelerate global carbon emissions by up to four billion tonnes, according to Carbon Brief's audit. "We have something that no other manufacturing nation will ever have, the largest amount of oil and gas of any country on Earth, and we are going to use it - let me use it," Trump said in his inaugural speech. "We will be a rich nation again, and it is that liquid gold under our feet that will help to do it." His actions immediately sparked criticism. Global climate experts warn that more drilling will push the world closer to catastrophic temperature spikes. They point out that the U.S. was already the top oil and gas producer under Biden. Wenonah Hauter of Food and Water Watch said ramping up production "leverages a false premise," because the U.S. grid is not in danger of collapse from data centre demand. She warned that more drilling will raise energy costs, fuel disasters, and harm communities of colour. Meanwhile, Trump's advisers claim high energy prices are "by design" and that new drilling is necessary for America's prosperity. His decision to withdraw from the Paris climate agreement remains central to his policy. Even when state and local governments are stepping up, with more than 5,000 state and local leaders pledging to honour the Paris Agreement. Even Russia - another big emitter - has urged Washington to stay on board, as the 2015 accord has united 194 parties. The withdrawal process takes a year, so the U.S. would remain a party to the agreement until that time lapses. But the symbolic impact is enormous. France, Germany, Canada, and others may try to fill the leadership gap. Many see this as an opening for China to strengthen its claim as a climate champion, despite its own heavy coal use. The South Asian economic giant currently dominates electric vehicle production globally, with the U.S. coming a distant second. That choice could slow global climate progress. Critics say new drilling and weakened standards will jeopardise the world's ability to limit temperature rise. The White House declared the emergency to streamline fossil fuel permits, though legal challenges loom. Africa is particularly concerned. Scientists warn that increased emissions will worsen droughts and floods across the continent. America itself is still smarting from the adverse effects of climate change, having lived through violent hurricanes and fires that continue devastating various parts of California. The withdrawal announcement also comes at a time when the world's superpower grapples with a frigid climate occasioned by an unprecedented snowfall. Kenyan Special Envoy for Climate Change, Ali Mohamed, said Africa stands ready to work with the United States but needs concrete climate finance and leadership, not disengagement. Kenya faces rising temperatures and more erratic rainfall, threatening crops and livestock. African nations fear Trump's retreat from global climate efforts will reduce funding for adaptation and resilience. The African Group of Negotiators explained the urgency. They cited damage to African food security and public health if major emitters fail to act. Trump's moves clash with data on America's clean energy shift. Solar and wind surpassed coal in the U.S. in 2024. More drilling in places like Alaska's Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) has stirred controversy for years. Trump promised during his campaign to reopen the 19-million-acre refuge to oil production. Just hours into his new presidency, he overturned Biden-era rules that had placed large Arctic Ocean tracts off-limits. Environmental groups say drilling in the ANWR threatens one of the last pristine U.S. ecosystems, home to polar bears and migratory species. Hence, legal fights are certain. Previously, an Alaska lease sale for ANWR garnered zero bids. Analysts doubt the market appetite exists to support major new drilling in such a remote location. Large tax credits under the previous administration fuelled a boom in battery and electric car projects. Businesses invested USD 422 billion in 751 new clean energy projects since 2022, according to Climate Power. Many cities and states pledge to continue these efforts, even without federal support. Trump's offshore drilling expansion has already met resistance. Critics point to low industry interest in sensitive areas like Alaska's Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. Environmental groups plan lawsuits. Oil firms say they base decisions on market demand, not just political signals. The Biden administration also left behind studies showing expanding LNG exports would raise domestic energy costs. Electric vehicle incentives also hang in the balance. Trump wants to roll back support, but auto companies are moving ahead with EV investments. Tesla, Ford, Hyundai, Honda and others see consumer demand rising. EV sales reached about 10 percent in North America last year. Cox Automotive projects another record year in 2025. Tesla and other manufacturers receive billions in government tax credits and compliance incentives. Trump calls EV tax breaks wasteful, but the industry urges him to keep them. Even Elon Musk, once the world's top EV maker, acknowledges that federal clean energy programmes helped Tesla, which has earned over USD 10 billion in government-issued credits. Hyundai executives say their commitment to electrification stands, regardless of Trump's moves. Many analysts caution that unravelling climate programmes will be costly. Johns Hopkins estimates retreating on clean energy could shift USD 80 billion in supply chain opportunities abroad. Domestically, it could undercut job creation from EV and battery factories. Observers also point to the trade risks. Additional tariffs on green technologies could provoke retaliation and raise prices. Trump's offshore wind ban could stall an industry that provides large amounts of electricity in states like Texas and Iowa. New projects along the East Coast are under construction and may face sudden stops if the president issues a blanket ban. Advocacy groups argue that offshore wind is vital for achieving state-level climate targets. Across Africa, the ripple effects could be severe. Many programmes that help communities in adaptation rely on global climate commitments. Mohamed urged the U.S. to uphold the principle of shared responsibility. He noted that Africa, despite its minimal historical emissions, is bearing disproportionate impacts of climate change. Global pressure on Trump's administration will likely intensify. Courts may challenge his emergency declaration for failing to prove an actual crisis. Still, the president seems willing to test legal limits. Observers warn these policy swings create uncertainty for investors and local governments. They also raise the stakes for international cooperation. Many Americans, including climate activists, have vowed to keep pushing city and state action. Energy experts say market forces favour continued clean energy growth. They point to falling costs of solar, wind, and battery storage. But Trump's sweeping orders could slow progress, especially in new project permits and offshore expansions. Despite Trump's pro-drilling stance, the U.S. oil industry is not always eager to expand. A global decline in oil demand, especially in China, means new exploration carries financial risks. Bob Ryan, an oil analyst, says production will only grow when prices and markets support it. Industry leaders do welcome fewer regulations but do not want to flood the market and drive prices down. They also worry about legal battles if Trump overreaches with the "energy emergency." Meanwhile, the administration's approach to the Inflation Reduction Act could threaten America's clean energy transition. The IRA unlocked USD 74 billion for renewable projects, with tax credits that might exceed $1 trillion if fully utilised. Mohamed remains firm that Africa wants full US participation in global climate deals, calling it essential for mobilising resources and curbing emissions worldwide. With global temperatures climbing, the choices Trump makes on drilling, clean energy, trade, and diplomacy carry consequences far beyond American borders. Africa and Kenya see both risk and opportunity. Risk comes from reduced global support for adaptation projects. Joab Okanda, a climate change and energy expert, stated, "Trump's readiness to pour fuel on an already burning planet on his first day in office is a clear reminder that climate wreckers did not just buy themselves a seat in the Oval Office but an entire couch with a clear agenda of maintaining the extractive colonial economic and geopolitical hierarchy." Okanda warned that African nations face new threats under such policies, but he urged them to seize this as an opportunity to turn their vulnerability into resilience, use their geopolitical leverage, and champion a sustainable future by harnessing strategic minerals and renewable energy. Leaders from across the continent will watch closely to see if Trump modifies his stance or sticks to his pledge of "unleashing American energy" at any cost.

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