Human-caused climate crisis fueling drought in the Horn of Africa- study

A woman collects grain at a camp for the Internally Displaced People in Adadle district in the Somali region, Ethiopia, January 22, 2022. [Reuters]

"It is time we act and engage differently," she noted.

To quantify the impact of climate change on this drought, the scientists analyzed weather data and computer model simulations, comparing the climate today with that of the past.

They found that climate change has made agricultural drought in the region approximately 100 times more likely.

The scientists also discovered that climate change is affecting rainfall periods in opposite ways, with the long rains becoming drier, and the short rains becoming wetter.

"Rising temperatures caused by climate change have been a significant factor in the agricultural drought, as they have significantly increased evapotranspiration," said Izidine Pinto a researcher in weather and climate extremes.

The analysis indicated that while the consecutive failed rainy seasons and high temperatures, combined with existing vulnerabilities such as conflict, state fragility, and poverty, have contributed to the devastating human impacts of the drought, climate change remains the necessary factor for its occurrence.

Addressing the root causes of vulnerability and increasing investment in adaptation measures that are robust to both dry and wet extremes is critical to avoid future extreme weather events from becoming disasters.

Cheikh Kane, Climate Resilience Policy Advisor at the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, emphasized the importance of taking action to address the root causes of vulnerability and increase investment in adaptation measures that are robust to both dry and wet extremes, which are the norm in this region.

"We need to reinforce the things that are working, including formal and informal social protection mechanisms, early warning systems, and effective drought management, while looking for ways to reduce the drivers of vulnerability, including state fragility and conflict, environmental degradation, rain-dependent livelihoods, poverty and marginalisation," he said.

Women who fled drought line up to receive food distributed by local volunteers at a camp for displaced persons in the Daynile neighborhood on the outskirts of the Somalian capital Mogadishu. [AP Photo]

The scientists analyzed weather data and computer model simulations to compare the climate as it is today, after about 1.2 degrees Celsius of global warming since the late 1800s, with the climate of the past, following peer-reviewed methods.

They found that rising temperatures, driven by climate change, have also been a major factor behind the agricultural drought, as they have significantly increased evapotranspiration, a measure of how much water can evaporate from soil and plants.

Friederike Otto, Senior Lecturer in Climate Science at Grantham Institute - Climate Change and the Environment, Imperial College London said: "This study shows very strongly that drought is much more than just the lack of rain and that the impacts of climate change strongly depend on how vulnerable we are."

The current conditions in the region are classified as 'exceptional drought' on the US Drought Monitor scale; without the effect of climate change on temperatures, conditions in the region would have been normal or 'abnormally dry', the level below drought.

The study was conducted by 19 researchers from around the world, including scientists from universities and meteorological agencies in Kenya, Mozambique, South Africa, the United States of America, the Netherlands, Germany, and the United Kingdom.