As elections draw near, here’s why we could lose a country

We are living in a panic moment, with just more than a fortnight to the general election. While the political rhetoric is charged as in any other election, it is worth noting that there is a silent fear growing about the eventuality that will come with this election.

Close to three weeks ago, a popular former local journalist and news anchor took to Twitter to call for peace during the election. She has an obscenely huge social media following. It is a sensible thing to ask of people, considering how a few elections in the past have turned man against neighbour.

Peaceful versus credible

The response however, was scary. A number of supporters from an Opposition-allied party called her out for choosing to substitute credible elections for peaceful elections.

While the former is equally important, it was worth noting the underlying sentiment: Credibility or nothing. The former TV siren, despite having a worthwhile message and calling for peace, was turned into an ‘agent of systematic manipulation during elections’, in the words of these political hard-liners. They blamed her, amongst others, for the ‘Accept and Move On’ slogan that was popular after the 2013 General Election. In their view, ‘accept and Move on’ was a shut-up strategy that covered misdeeds in that election.

This time, they say, nothing will stop their call for credible elections.
The same has been the rhetoric from politicians, both sides having a go at each other. If you look closer, we are as divided as ever. We always are during the elections. This time however, there is the underlying fear that violence would eventually break out.

A close friend of mine whose parents have predominantly voted in Litein, Kericho County, told me that his father insisted they travel home to Kisii immediately after casting their vote. I have done my research on the same, and it is a blanket situation. A majority of people living in areas where they are a minority ethnic community considered the dissent to the popular political opinion, either registered in their rural homes or are planning to travel away just before the result is announced.

Political cleavage

Pippa Norris, professor of Comparative Politics at the Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University wrote a paper in 2003 about Electoral Engineering. In the paper; ‘Voting Rules and Political Behaviour’ he discussed the Political Cleavage Theory, where political actors seek to mobilise their base by heightening ethnic tensions through adopting populist rhetoric directed to own-group appeals. Here, the bigger game on the tale needs to be understood by the electorate in the simplest terms possible: the ‘big picture’ variable, needs to be broken down into tractable components that have real world correlate. In this election, the bigger picture is credibility, where NASA has managed to paint the image that they are disadvantaged by the ‘system’. “The system is rigged” has been their mantra, and Jubilee have done all to push the “NASA are afraid of losing” narrative just as much. Take a tour to Twitter any day, even on a Sunday and follow a political conversation. It is all loose talk, and dangerous talk.

Looking at the country now, you can sniff the building tension and divide. We are deep into political cleavage. Economist David Ndii was recently in the news for saying that the country would burn if Mr Kenyatta is declared President in another sham election. Why Dr Ndii would utter such a statement is incomprehensible. However, it indicates how far up this tension has gone.

While campaigning is important, it will never be wrong to preach peace. The alternative is unacceptable. Credible elections are equally important. You can argue out credibility from your view point. However, it will never be as clear as peace and lack of it.

Too little, too late?

It would be too much to expect politicians to calm down their rhetoric this far. The time left is too little and their rhetoric will grow. However, it would not hurt for political commentators, pundits and politicians themselves to throw in a statement of peace. We love peace, I promise you. If you doubt it, watch video reruns of the IAAF World under 18 Championships. Hugging, smiling, laughing, happy and together.

Those were not imported foreigners who filled the stadium with joy, and the country as well: those were Kenyans at their best, as it should be

We all need to calm down. We all need to take a look at the country and see that there is a danger in this fear sentiment growing even further. To calm it down needs to start at the top. Two weeks is a short time, but sometimes even short is enough. This is one of those times.

Mr Mureu is a teacher who comments on socio-political [email protected]