Farmajo’s attack on Kenya a survival tactic

Somalia is a broken country in a fix; full of broken dreams and ambitious politicians who have plunged it into the geopolitical wilderness. It is manipulated by extra-continental forces using ‘leaders’ whose allegiance is mostly to foreign countries rather than Somalia.

Sometimes, those leaders like picking fights with Somalia’s neighbours which helps to divert attention from mounting domestic problems. It has two favourite targets in diverting attention — Kenya and Ethiopia — but it is Kenya that gets most of Somalia’s manufactured wrath. Recently, the Somali government tried to pick a fight with Kenya to divert attention from its domestic problems.

The Minister for Information, Osman Dubbe and Foreign Affairs Permanent Secretary Mohamed Ali Nur, launched public attacks on Kenya. While Dubbe accused Kenya of treating Somalia the Tigray way, Nur recalled the country’s ambassador to Kenya, Mohamed Tarzan and expelled Ambassador Lucas Tumbo from Mogadishu, stating “it appeared that Kenya was deliberately” putting pressure on Jubaland President Ahmed Madobe.

The claim sounded like an act of desperation on Somalia President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed’s (alias Farmajo) part, given that he is facing an election in February 2021 that may not be going well. He needs to divert attention, and Kenya is a convenient scapegoat.    

Farmajo was an American citizen when he became president in February 2017. He took pride in his ‘republican’ connection and, like US President Donald Trump, fired assistants at will. He benefited from splits and a virtual bribing competition in Somalia’s rival extra-continental forces. He appointed foreigners as ministers, among them, Norwegian citizen Ali Khaire as Prime Minister. 

Political trouble increased after Farmajo engineered a July 2020 vote of no confidence in Khaire. In September 2020, Farmajo appointed Swedish citizen Mohamed Roble Prime Minister, replacing Khaire, who later joined former presidents in ganging up against Farmajo. While on a tour of Nairobi, Khaire asked Kenyan legislators from the North Eastern region to support his presidential endeavour. Farmajo panicked and lashed out at the presidents of the Somali regional states, particularly Jubaland’s Madobe.

It also looked as if he could rope in Aby Ahmed of Ethiopia in the Tripartite Agreement involving Somalia, Eritrea, and Ethiopia. Aby, however, is having a lot of problems in Tigray, trying to maintain a semblance of national unity.

Both leaders, Aby and Farmajo, appeared like breaths of fresh air, replacing inept leadership and giving their countries new directions. Aby even received a Nobel Peace Prize in 2019 for settling the dispute in Eritrea and seeming to cool internal temperatures.

Farmajo dreams of consolidating power within Somalia and reviving the idea of greater Somalia. He would like to do this with external help, probably from Turkey and Qatar. Turkey has dreams of reviving the Ottoman Empire with Somalia as its southern end, which explains its large ambassadorial structure and military base in Mogadishu. 

Continental powers

Farmajo faces an election in which he has adopted anti-Kenyan strategy to win votes. His new strategy is to intensify tensions with Kenya over Jubaland and his attempt to contain Madobe, and over British and Norwegian induced maritime claims over Kenyan wealth at sea. He has no desire to settle the cooked up maritime dispute in the belief that settling it might lose him votes next year.

Apart from ‘rebellious’ politicians and regional presidents, Farmajo does not have effective control of large sections of Somalia, including Villa Somalia, in which the Al Shabaab is virtually the law.

The terror outfit collects more ‘taxes’ from business and employees than the official government. With the ambivalence of extra-continental powers over whether the Al Shabaab is terroristic enough for the UN to classify it as a terrorist organisation, Farmajo is equally ambivalent.

Kenya’s interest in cutting the Al Shabaab to size, therefore, appears like a threat to Farmajo who then prefers Somalia remaining like a political wilderness as long as he has some influence. Making accusations on Kenya is Farmajo’s way of maintaining his influence over the Somali geopolitical wilderness.  

Prof Munene Teaches History and International Relations at USIU