Four years on: Is peace any closer in Russia-Ukraine crisis?

A woman holding a child calls her husband as she sees him through the window of the bus transporting released Ukrainian prisoners of war, June 12, 2025. [Xinhua] As the Ukraine crisis marked its fourth anniversary on Tuesday, the conflict remains entrenched in a stalemate, with mounting human and economic costs and little immediate hope for a negotiated peace. While both Kiev and Moscow reaffirm their willingness to engage in dialogue, the reality on the ground reflects a complex interplay of military aid, diplomatic maneuvers, and international pressure, leaving the future of Europe's deadliest conflict since World War II uncertain. Mounting call for peace As the war grinds on and the human and economic toll continues to rise, calls for an immediate ceasefire and renewed diplomatic engagement have intensified. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres on Monday reiterated his call for an immediate, full and unconditional ceasefire as a first step towards a just, lasting and comprehensive peace. In a statement, the UN chief said the crisis "is a stain on our collective consciousness, and remains a threat to regional and international peace and security." For peace to be just, he said, it must be in line with the UN Charter, international law and relevant UN resolutions, respecting Ukraine's independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity. In a statement on Tuesday, the G7 leaders pledged continued support for a peace process and direct discussions, adding that Europe has a leading role to play in this process, joined by other partners. "We acknowledge that only Ukraine and Russia, working together in good faith negotiations, can reach a peace agreement," said the leaders. Hundreds of people gathered at the Royal Castle Square in Warsaw, Poland on 24 February, 2026 to markt the 4th anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. [AFP] As for China, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said on Tuesday that China's position on the Ukraine crisis has been consistent and clear, and that China supports all efforts for peace. Noting that a door for dialogue has opened, with all parties maintaining communication, she said dialogue and negotiation remain the only viable path to resolving the issue. It is hoped that all parties will seize the opportunity to reach a comprehensive, lasting, and binding peace agreement, Mao said. Continued military support Despite growing calls from the international community for dialogue and a negotiated settlement, Western countries have continued to step up military assistance to Ukraine. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney on Tuesday announced a new aid package for Ukraine, including approximately 2 billion Canadian dollars (1.46 billion U.S. dollars) in military assistance and 20 million Canadian dollars (14.6 million dollars) to rebuild infrastructure damaged in the conflict. To target the financial enablers, Canada is also imposing new sanctions and further lowering the price cap on Russian crude oil, he said. On Feb 19, Sweden announced one of its largest military support packages for Ukraine, worth about 1.4 billion dollars, with the bulk of the funding directed toward air defense, long-range capabilities and ammunition, according to a government statement. Hundreds of people gathered at the Royal Castle Square in Warsaw, Poland on 24 February, 2026 to markt the 4th anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.[AFP] In addition, Sweden will donate certain equipment from its armed forces, including recoilless rifles with ancillary equipment and ammunition, while providing funds for replacement procurements and transport, the statement said. On Feb 12, Britain announced a new half-a-billion-pound (680 million dollars) package for urgent air defense support to Ukraine during a NATO defense ministers' meeting in Brussels. According to British Defense Secretary John Healey, 150 million pounds (202.83 million dollars) of the total will be allocated for air defense interceptors and 400 million pounds (540.88 million dollars) will be used for lightweight multirole missiles. In addition, Britain will also provide an extra 1,200 air defense missiles together with its partners in the air defense consortium. While the United States has made no new aid commitments in 2025, European countries have significantly increased their support, and collectively have provided more aid than the United States since the start of the conflict, said the Council on Foreign Relations on Monday. Peace talks to continue With hundreds of thousands of soldiers from both sides killed or injured in the conflict, the two sides have recently reiterated their commitment to peace. In Tuesday's address marking the fourth anniversary of the conflict, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reaffirmed Ukraine's determination to pursue a just and lasting peace while defending its sovereignty. "Of course, we all want the war to end. But no one will allow Ukraine to end. We want peace. Strong, dignified, lasting," Zelensky said, adding, "We have preserved Ukraine, and we will do everything to secure peace and justice." In an interview with the Financial Times on Monday, Zelensky said Russia and Ukraine were at the "beginning of the end" of Europe's biggest conflict since World War II. "Ukraine needs a ceasefire, yesterday, today, tomorrow," he said. "We don't need a pause. We need the end of the war." As for Russia, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Tuesday that Russia remains committed to resolving the ongoing Ukraine crisis through political and diplomatic efforts. "We continue efforts for peace. Our position is well known and consistent. Now everything depends on the actions of Kiev," Peskov said, adding that Russia's special military operation will continue until its goals are achieved. Since the start of 2026, the two sides, along with the United States, have held several rounds of talks. The most recent round concluded in Geneva on Feb. 18 with no breakthrough on key issues. The next round of talks could be held at the end of this week, said a Reuters report, citing Zelensky's chief of staff, Kyrylo Budanov. Two previous rounds of trilateral talks, held in Abu Dhabi on Jan. 23-24 and Feb. 4-5, also failed to resolve key territorial issues. What is really playing out between the two adversaries and their allies is a slow-motion standoff, one fueled by strategic ambiguity, with all possible scenarios for resolving the conflict still very much undecided, the French Newspaper Le Monde reported on Monday. "Both sides are currently on fire, but the question is which one is burning down faster. It's the same somewhat cynical race that has been underway since 2022," Elie Tenenbaum, director of the security center at the French Institute of International Relations, was quoted as saying.

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