A call to account: The Sh100b question every county must answer

In line with our noisy traditions, 2026 opened with a debate around education access and quality, which morphed into questions about what counties, especially from Northern Kenya, have done with 12 years of our taxes, which they receive as equitable share. Yet, as we observe how our governors seem to treat Nairobi as permanent digs, and counties as occasional working retreats, it's a debate not just about Northern, but most, if not all, of our leaders, including MPs and CDF. Today we are tyrannizing numbers, so let's begin with back-of-the-envelope calculations using Treasury, Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS), Controller of Budget, Commission on Revenue Allocation and Parliamentary Budget Office data (ignoring their divergent data noise). Starting with the 2012/13 half-year, counties collectively received about Sh3.7 trillion in equitable share over, to repeat, the 12 years to June 2025, a number that will hit over Sh4.1 trillion by the end of the current 2025/26 fiscal year in June. The 2026 Budget Policy Statement (BPS) points us to almost Sh4.6 trillion in cumulative county equitable share by June 2027, right before our next election. The National government will have spent a bit more than Sh35 trillion in that time. So basically, by June 2027, the totality of government will have spent about Sh40 trillion in 14 financial years and a bit, including almost Sh9 trillion in "investments" (development spending), to grow, or more strictly facilitate the growth of, our annual economic activity base (that is, the economy i.e. GDP) by Sh16 trillion from a Sh5 trillion economy in 2013 to a Sh21 trillion one while borrowing Sh12 trillion (including Sh3 trillion, or a quarter of all borrowing, for recurrent costs) because our revenue raising only gets to Sh28 trillion. Yes, read that again. Of course, it's more nuanced - total economic activity (i.e. cumulative GDP) through these 14 years adds up to about Sh181 trillion. But we prefer to indulge our "fiscal tail wags economic dog" picture. Yet this picture really tells us government, despite its oversized role in our developmental state, is not the economy. We will return to "tail wags dog" in the next piece, but consider where we might be if more of that Sh40 trillion paid for by (current) taxes and debt (future taxes) remained in private hands. Or alternatively, if we hit better returns from this huge public spending outlay. Noisy equitable share Let's get back to counties. Did you know that, by the end of 2023/24, seven counties (Kakamega, Kiambu, Kilifi, Mandera, Nairobi, Nakuru and Turkana) had each cumulatively received over Sh100 billion in equitable share? They were then joined in this "100 billion club" by Bungoma and Kitui in 2024/25. Kisii, Machakos, Meru and Wajir will become members this 2025/26 year, and, going by BPS projections, so should Kwale, Makueni and Narok by June 2027, with Garissa, Kajiado, Kisumu, Marsabit, Mombasa and Uasin Gishu in the Sh90 billion-plus range. Yes, there's CDF, county additional allocations and own source revenue, but equitable share is the cash cow. In short, we have a "100 billion club" of seven counties in 2023/24, nine in 2024/25, 13 this year and 16 by 2027 with six more on the threshold. Yes, governors change, but people remain. So, beyond Northern Kenya, here's a better club night question: Where has Sh100 billion gone? This is not an idle question. For the "100 billion club", it's a moment to explain to Kenyans the split between staffing (payroll), service delivery (operations and maintenance) and investment (development), as set against personal wealth declarations, and county pending bills. Remember, a key role for county leaders is service delivery, not just payroll and projects. And, yes, we should also ask the same stuff about Sh32 billion Lamu, Sh44 billion Tharaka-Nithi or Sh53 billion Vihiga. It is tempting to expand this analysis to "my/our region/people", but let's do two "neutral" takes. My people, our region For those of us living in the provincial mindset of yesteryear (today resprayed as NGAO), of the nine "Sh100 billion club" counties in June 2025, we can count two each from Western and Rift Valley and one each from Central, Eastern, Coast and North-Eastern, plus Nairobi. So, Nyanza is the missing province; Kisii will be the province's first to join the club this (2025/26) year. For those who believe in regional economic blocs, the same nine-county breakdown is two each (Kakamega and Bungoma) from Lake Region Economic Bloc (LREB) and Central Region Economic Bloc (CEREB - Kiambu and Nakuru), and one each from Jumuia ya Kaunti za Pwani (Kilifi in JKP), Frontier Counties Development Council (Mandera in FCDC), North Rift Economic Bloc (Turkana in NOREB), South Eastern Kenya Economic Bloc (Kitui in SEKEB), plus, yet again, Nairobi. By this analysis, only Narok-Kajiado Economic Bloc (NAKAEB) has no members' card. It isn't rocket science to see that different lens of analysis can lead us to divergent conclusions. What's the regional split of the Sh3.7 trillion equitable share allocation to June 2025? In provincial terms, it breaks down as Central (five counties - Sh361 billion); Coast (six counties - Sh425 billion); Eastern (eight counties - Sh597 billion); Nairobi (Sh190 billion); North Eastern (three counties - Sh300 billion); Nyanza (six counties - Sh454 billion); Rift Valley (14 counties - Sh1.037 trillion) and Western (four counties - Sh360 billion). Excluding Nairobi as "special", per county "averages" are highest in North-Eastern and Western, and lowest in Central and Coast, with the rest in between. A split using regional economic blocs gives CEREB's 10 counties at Sh727 billion, FCDC's five at Sh423 billion, JKP's six at Sh425 billion, LREB's 12 at Sh946 billion, NAKAEB's two at Sh159 billion, NOREB's eight at Sh572 billion, SEKEB's three at Sh283 billion and Nairobi at Sh190 billion. Excluding Nairobi again, the per county "average" is highest in SEKEB (Ukambani) and FCDC (frontier counties); lowest in JKP (Coast) and NOREB (North Rift). Again, two pictures? Politicos will argue these regional splits are not "political", so let's go less neutral, using 12 regions as defined by a 2022 election opinion pollster "to reflect voter homogeneity" as they argued then. Well, the picture looks like this. Central Rift's seven counties at a total allocation of Sh509 billion with Nakuru in the 100 billion club. Coast's six JKP counties at a total of Sh425 billion with Kilifi in the club. Lower Eastern's three SEKEB counties at Sh283 billion with Kitui as club member. Mount Kenya East's three counties at Sh191 billion with no club members. Mount Kenya West's six counties at Sh412 billion with Kiambu in the club. North Rift's three counties at Sh247 billion with Turkana as club member. Northern Kenya's five FCDC counties at Sh423 billion with Mandera in the club. Nyanza North's three counties at Sh224 billion, and Nyanza South's three at Sh230 billion and South Rift's two NAKAEB counties at Sh159 billion with none of these regions holding club membership. Western's five counties at Sh431 billion with two club members, Kakamega and Bungoma. Finally, Nairobi at Sh190 billion. In this rendering, Mount Kenya East has the lowest "average", Lower Eastern the highest. That's your political picture. Hard questions Beyond discussions around the formula that drives the equitable share, where does this data point us? To begin with, a call to account across all counties on what these funds have done for the people in terms of "DSD" - development and service delivery, the first core role of your Governors. And it's more than that. We now have potential narratives around regional perspectives. But this is a small part of the story. Let's look at the bigger part in the next article.

A call to account: The Sh100b question every county must answer

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A call to account: The Sh100b question every county must answer

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