Improving disease modelling capacity key to beating malaria

Mosquito in a swamp.(Courtesy)

As we observe World Malaria Day, it's a good time to look back on our journey so far - the progress we have made and the long road ahead. Beyond the horizon is a Kenya where malaria epidemics are no longer surprises but something we can predict and prevent. Where interventions are not just widespread but also smart, targeted, and cost-effective. That future is within reach, and it starts with epidemiological modelling.

Despite all the progress we have made, malaria still continues to cast a long shadow over Kenya, threatening millions. The 2024 World Malaria Report estimates that 3.3 million cases were recorded in 2023-a drop from previous years, but still far too many. About 70 per cent of Kenyans remain at risk, and the transmission risk varies across the country, from a 19 per cent prevalence in lake-endemic regions to less than 1 per cent in low risk areas.