Hardliners ignored as path for truce is launched

President William Ruto, Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, hosts leaders of Parliament Led by National Assembly Leader of Majority Kimani Ichungwa and his Senate Counterpart Aaron Cheruiyot to establish a framework for the bipartisan strategy at State House Nairobi. [PCS, Standard] Kenya Kwanza hardliners led by Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua have been forced to beat a hasty retreat after President William Ruto agreed to dialogue with Azimio la Umoja One Kenya leaders led by Raila Odinga. After breathing fire and brimstone for weeks and warning that the only talks ''we will hold with Raila shall be about his exit from politics", to borrow the words of Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, it looked rather awkward seeing him standing next to the president as he announced the truce. Focus now shifts to the role they will play especially outside parliament where most of the negotiations will take place before the process moves to the floor of the House. Professor of History and International Relations, Macharia Munene, does not see them creating any obstacles to the process because the president and Raila are the ones managing the talks. "The hardliners will give their advice, but they have to then follow what the president wants without creating obstacles as we move forward," says Prof Munene. And so, the ultimatums and harsh voices from the likes of majority leader Kimani Ichungwa and Kiharu MP Ndindi Nyoro will be more subdued as the process of resolving the governance issues raised by Raila are discussed. Prof Munene thinks the president will listen to them but cautions that the role of advisers to advice and the role of the leader is to make decisions after listening. "They could have a case if he refuses to listen to their advice, but listening does not mean accepting all they say and so some of them may be disappointed," he added. Prof Munene remembers that the logic was often used by President Jomo Kenyatta, who used to listen to people and makes decisions that they sometimes didn't like. And so as president, Ruto will be looking at the bigger picture of bringing all sides together and not necessarily agreeing with what his hardline assistants will be telling him. Although going by their public exchanges, there appeared to be bad blood between Raila and Gachagua, Prof Munene says there is no problem, because politicians who are sworn enemies can change overnight. He sees no problem with Gachagua sitting with Raila at negotiations that may happen outside parliament because politicians switch positions without flinching an eye. He argued that it is absurd for supporters to follow politicians and die for them during campaigns and protests and yet, at the end of the day, they are left there alone as the politicians pursue their interests. A good example was the Inter Parties Parliamentary Group (IPPG) pact in 1997 when politicians ganged up against activists and other Kenyans, who were protesting on the streets while calling for reforms. Many people were beaten and injured while others died on the streets as they were attacked by goons from a gang called Jeshi la Mzee. The National Convention Executive Council and other civil society groups led by Prof Kivutha Kibwana, Davinder Lamba, Dr Willy Mutunga and Rev. Timothy Njoya among others were left out of the reform-making process by politicians after IPPG emerged. They were surprised when some MPs who had supported their calls for reforms among them firebrands like Raila, Martha Karua, Paul Muite, Mwai Kibaki, James Orengo among others abandoned them. Political analyst Martin Andati, however, argues that the hardliners will become irrelevant because Ruto and Raila will directly whip their MPs to pass whatever reforms they will agree on. From previous experience in similar circumstances, the principals have always called the shots to effect whatever changes they want because of the numbers they marshal. Most of the MPs especially those from Raila's Luo Nyanza backyard and other Azimio coalition parties, who had technically defected to Kenya Kwanza will also be an unhappy lot. That is because the new developments have drastically diminished their value and bargaining power when they visit the State House to discuss what they call development projects. Andati foresees Raila fighting for and agreeing on what he calls irreducible minimums, among them the reconstitution of IEBC with one side getting the position of chairman and the other, deputy. Again from experience analysts say, the two sides could agree to expand the commission to maybe 13 commissioners to accommodate each of the main partners and interested parties. Kenya Kwanza could also agree to reduce the price of maize flour a month or two before farmers in the country harvest the next crop although food prices will at the time automatically come down. "So most of these issues will be dealt with but the new development makes hardliners irrelevant because if you are dealing with Raila, you don't need to waste time with other people," says Andati. He says Gachagua knows the moment Raila got into a relationship with Uhuru in 2018, Ruto became irrelevant and so his role could also become peripheral in the current debate. It was at that time, that the deputy president also started playing hardline politics and attacked his boss Uhuru at every function while campaigning around the country. It has also been argued that the current deputy president has tried to entrench himself as the Mt Kenya kingpin with little success. "He misses the charisma that Uhuru carried and that is one of the reasons acceptance is lacking and secondly because he was just a one-term MP," says Andati. And so, he is struggling with others like Ichungwa and Nyoro also fighting to fill the vacuum as they all continue attacking Uhuru, who has so far largely ignored them. It is further argued that with Raila in the limelight, others who may be suppressed include Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi and National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetangula, the latter mainly because MPs will be receiving orders from outside parliament. Andati says Ruto and Raila will have to pick negotiating teams to begin meeting outside parliament to agree on the issues they want to be addressed in the House. "The team will give proposals to experts who will draft the necessary constitutional amendment Bills that will then be tabled in parliament for approval," says Andati. The new developments also mean that the Nelson Makanda -led- IEBC reconstitution panel has become technically irrelevant unless it is included in the new process. Prof Gitile Naituli of Multi Media University also welcomed the opening talks between Ruto and Raila and asked them to completely ignore the hardliners. He says the hardliners need to retreat further back because they were exposing themselves to nothing but ridicule when the country needed peace and a good business environment. "Aggressive talk was doing a lot of damage to their credibility as leaders while tarnishing the country and also making them become warmongers," said Naituli. He said it is good that Ruto and Raila had realized that politics is about give and take and the political system which survives is the flexible one. "The hardliners wanted us to solve our problems on the battlefield, which we rejected as a country and said people can negotiate peace on a table as heroes and not warriors," he added.

Hardliners ignored as path for truce is launched

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