Pulling Kenya’s troops out of South Sudan is reckless

For decades, Kenya has laboured under a mistaken illusion about South Sudan. The Kenyan state — and its people — wrongly think that South Sudan needs Kenya. Nothing could be further from the truth, or totally wrong. Even in its darkest moments, and especially then, South Sudan has never needed Kenya. In geopolitical and military strategic logic, sub-regional powers like Kenya have a larger interest in keeping the neighbourhood safe. The reason is simple. Kenya stands to lose the most if the sub region descends into utter chaos with the attendant refugee flows. The converse is all true. Kenya stands to reap the largest dividends if the sub region is functional. Mini-hegemons thrive where their neighbours are tranquil and prospering.

Let me give you an analogy. Troubled states like South Sudan are rickety and on stilts. They don’t have a stable or basic state infrastructure or political traditions of functional politics. South Sudan has been ruled by the gun for decades. First, it faced the brutality of the north. Now, brother has turned against brother. It’s clear early in the life of the Republic of South Sudan that its political elite is immature, juvenile, and underdeveloped. Just take one look at President Salva Kiir and his funny hat and you get me. Who dresses like? A cowboy president in South Sudan is comical. Then take a look at his nemesis Riek Machar. I can’t get over his cufflinks.