Will consensus on Doha be reached in Nairobi

NAIROBI: Ministerial conferences are the World Trade Organisations (WTO) highest decision-making organ and are held biennially to take decisions on matters under a myriad of the multilateral trade agreements.

The Doha Round, which is the current round of trade negotiations among WTO membership, began in 2001 and aims at improving trade prospects of less developed countries in nine key areas; agriculture, non-agricultural market access (Nama), services, trade facilitation, development (special and differential treatment), rules, trade and environment, Trips and dispute settlement.

It is noteworthy that a significant outcome of the last ministerial meeting held in Bali, commonly termed the “Bali Round”, in 2013 concluded negotiations on trade facilitation.

The Nairobi ministerial conference aims to address the remaining agenda issues.

More pertinent for less developing countries (LDCs), is that if the Doha Round agrees to reduce trade barriers it will consequently facilitate increased global trade and improve market access for LDCs.

As envisaged, the MC10 seeks to conclude the Doha Round and the task ahead is almost insurmountable, to say the least.

Will the conference’s outcomes provide the credible outcomes that LDCs have long advocated for? Or as some critics opine, will the Doha Round be prematurely closed rather than agreeably concluded? Should we prepare for a 'Nairobi Round'? The outcome could go either way, however what does this conference mean for Kenya and Africa as a whole?

Kenya’s success in WTO matters has been attributed to a Kenyan mission fully based in Geneva, WTO's headquarters, as well as the country’s participation and representation in key WTO talks. Kenya was among the founding members of WTO in 1994.

Notwithstanding that its active participation in WTO has been on trade services and intellectual property rights, agriculture forms the bulk of Kenya’s negotiations. One would understand why.

According to the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, the agriculture sector in Kenya contributed 27.3 per cent (Sh1.5 billion) to the country’s GDP in 2014 and employed an estimated 300,000 people in the private and public sectors, accounting for 17.4 per cent of the country’s total working population.

In 2014, food and beverages contributed 40.8 per cent to total domestic export earnings and were the leading foreign exchange earner.

Whether or not the Doha Round is concluded, current deliberations and negotiations for Kenya on its agricultural exports are likely to focus on issues of global market access, trade-distorting domestic support by developed countries in form of domestic and export subsidies, which cause unfair trade practices and competition in international markets, as well as export competition from agricultural value-added products.

Fears on winding up of the Doha Round without mutually beneficial agreements in Nairobi emanate from LDCs feeling that negotiations are being stalled to meet demands of major industrialised countries.

While one has to take cognizance of the complexities of WTO agreements, these fears can only be allayed through agreements that will provide “credible developmental outcomes” that will ensure key exports from countries like Kenya have recourse to quota and duty free access where export subsidies are eliminated to ensure livelihoods and the development agenda in these countries are supported.

Africa’s demand to create a level playing field in the global export market and the conclusion of the Doha Round negotiations might be a wayward hope with insurmountable hurdles.

That notwithstanding, the Kenya government has from its coffers injected Sh800 million to facilitate MC10 and the conference tourism segment in Kenya is poised to benefit as the ministerial conference brings to Kenya 161 trade ministers and their entourages who will definitely be accommodated in big hotels in and around Nairobi, and will most likely spend some of their stipends and per diems in other sectors of the economy.

A positive result nonetheless, regardless of the MC10 outcome.